Alex Mercer: Welcome to the Daily Sports Evening Edition for Sunday, January 4th. I’m Alex Mercer. We have a massive night ahead with the AFC North title on the line and a heavy NBA slate. We encourage you to jump in our prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket's data to find our edge. Let’s get straight into the board.

Marcus Webb: It’s been a clinical day so far, Alex. We went four-for-four on our early windows. The Packers and Vikings stayed well under the 44.5 line, finishing at just 19 total points as Clayton Tune struggled exactly as we modeled. In New England, the Patriots Moneyline was a dominant win, 38 to 10, as the Dolphins' offense looked lost without a ground game. Our morning Dog of the Day, the Commanders at +9.5, didn't just cover—they won outright 24 to 17 against the Eagles' backups. Finally, the Nuggets and Nets crushed the 218.5 total, putting up 242 points.

As for our final morning hold, the Grizzlies versus the Lakers, we are maintaining a "Conviction Held" status. Ja Morant is officially ruled OUT for tonight’s 9:30 PM Eastern tip-off. The market for the Lakers -3.5 is currently trading at 56 cents. Even with the slight price movement, the Grizzlies simply do not have the depth to handle the Lakers' interior advantage tonight. If you can still get this under 60 cents before tip, the Lakers -3.5 remains a high-conviction play for our portfolio.

Alex Mercer: Total sweep on the completed games. Let’s keep that momentum into the night window. We have two major additions to the card, starting with a mismatch out West in the NBA. Marcus, what are we seeing with the Bucks and Kings?

Marcus Webb: We are looking at the Milwaukee Bucks Moneyline, which is currently trading at 68.5 cents on Polymarket. This is a 9:00 PM Eastern start. The Sacramento Kings are in a freefall, losing four straight, and they’ll be without their anchor, Domantas Sabonis, who is dealing with a meniscus injury. This leaves a massive void in the paint that rookie Maxime Raynaud has to fill against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the newly acquired Myles Turner.

The Kings' roster is unrecognizable after the De'Aaron Fox trade and waiving Damian Lillard; they are leaning heavily on DeMar DeRozan and Russell Westbrook. Milwaukee has the size and the veteran continuity here. If this price holds under 72 cents, it’s a strong add. However, be mindful of the volatility—if Giannis were to be a late scratch, we pivot immediately, but as of now, he is probable.

Alex Mercer: And finally, the game everyone is waiting for: the AFC North title match at 8:20 PM Eastern. This is our second "Dog of the Day" for the Sunday slate. Marcus, why are we fading the Ravens in Pittsburgh?

Marcus Webb: This is our DOG OF THE DAY: Steelers +3.5, currently trading at 50 cents. It is a winner-take-all battle at Acrisure Stadium. While the Ravens are the favorites in traditional markets, the data in this specific rivalry is undeniable. Under Mike Tomlin, the underdog in the Ravens-Steelers series is a staggering 25-7-3 against the spread. Furthermore, Tomlin is 23-9-3 ATS as a home underdog. 

The Ravens' secondary is the Achilles' heel here, ranking 30th in passing yards allowed, and Marlon Humphrey is a game-time decision with an illness. We expect Aaron Rodgers to exploit those matchups in a high-tension, one-score game. This is an active bet, so have an exit strategy if the Steelers fall behind by two scores early, but the historical value on Tomlin in this spot is too high to ignore. 

Alex Mercer: Let’s recap the Final Portfolio for this Sunday night. We have the Lakers -3.5 trading at 56 cents for the 9:30 PM tip. In the NBA, we’ve added the Bucks Moneyline at 68.5 cents for the 9:00 PM start. And our Dog of the Day is the Steelers +3.5 at 50 cents for the 8:20 PM kickoff. 

Marcus Webb: Just a reminder for the late games: if the Lakers' line jumps past 65 cents or the Bucks' ML climbs over 75, the value is largely evaporated. Stay disciplined with your entries.

Alex Mercer: That wraps up our Sunday Evening Edition. Since it is Sunday night, make sure to tune in tomorrow morning as we dive into the "Ledger Recap" to see exactly how our portfolio performed over this massive weekend. 

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.