Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports for Monday, January 5th. We encourage you to jump in our prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data. I’m Alex Mercer, and we are looking at a heavy slate where the market might be sleeping on some massive rotation shifts. Marcus, what’s on the radar?

Marcus Webb: Good morning, Alex. The "Alpha" today is all about the injury reports and tired legs. I’ve got my eyes on that 76ers line—the market is reacting to the names, but they aren't looking at the defensive efficiency drop-off for their opponent.

Alex Mercer: We’ll get to that Philly game in a minute, but let’s start in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are hosting the Hornets, and OKC is currently a massive 16.5-point favorite. On the "Thunder to Cover" market, we’re seeing that trading around 54 cents. I love this spot for OKC. They’re coming off a heartbreaking buzzer-beater loss, and Charlotte is essentially walking into a buzzsaw without their top three rotation centers. 

Marcus Webb: It’s a statistical nightmare for the Hornets, Alex. Charlotte ranks 29th in Offensive Success Rate and carries a dismal -8.2 Net Rating. Now they have to face the league's #1 defense without anyone to contest Chet Holmgren at the rim. This has "blowout" written all over it. Since this tips off at 8:00 PM ET, we’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the desert, we have the Suns and Rockets. The total is set at 221.5, and the Over is currently trading at 52 cents. I’m leaning heavily on the Over here. We just saw Jordan Goodwin explode for 26 points, and Phoenix is 4th in the league in Effective Field Goal percentage at 56.8%. 

Marcus Webb: The real edge here is the absence of Alperen Sengun for Houston. He was ruled out this morning, and he’s their interior anchor. Without him, the Rockets are going to rely even more on their league-leading offensive rebounding—they’re sitting at a 33.1% rate—to create second-chance points. High-powered units, missing interior defense, and a modest total? That’s a recipe for an Over. Like the Thunder game, this starts at 8:00 PM ET, so keep an eye on the evening show for any late movement.

Alex Mercer: Now, let’s talk about that 76ers versus Nuggets game you teased. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite, trading at 55 cents to cover. The big story here is Nikola Jokic being out for Denver on the second leg of a back-to-back. I’ve watched this Denver bench lately, and even David Adelman called their rotation "lackluster." Without the Joker, I don’t see how they keep pace with Tyrese Maxey.

Marcus Webb: The data backs you up, Alex. Denver’s road defensive EPA is 12% worse than their home splits. They’ve lost four of their last five on the road, and now they face Joel Embiid in a building where the 76ers have a +8.4 Net Rating when he’s on the floor. If you can still get this under 60 cents for the Philly cover, you take it. This one starts at 8:30 PM ET, so we’ll check back in this evening.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day.

Marcus Webb: We’re heading to the ice for this one: Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames. The Kraken Moneyline is currently trading at 41 cents, implying a 41.5% probability. The public is heavily on Calgary here—58.5% of the market share is backing the Flames at home—but we are buying the mispriced probability on Seattle.

Alex Mercer: I’m with you on the Kraken, Marcus. They’re on a seven-game point streak and just gutted out a win in Vancouver. Calgary, meanwhile, is missing John Beecher to suspension and their coach is publicly questioning their effort. 

Marcus Webb: Exactly. We’re buying the "ugly" road price because the momentum and depth favor Seattle, regardless of the home-ice bias. Remember, this is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability, not guaranteeing a win. Have an exit target if the Kraken grab an early lead. Since this kicks off late at 9:30 PM ET, we’ll have plenty of time to track the limit orders in the evening edition.

Alex Mercer: To recap: We’re laying the points with the Thunder and 76ers, hammering the Over in Suns-Rockets, and taking the Kraken as our Dog of the Day. We’ll be back at 6:30 PM ET with the Evening Edition to see where these prices settle before lock. 

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.