Alex Mercer: Welcome to the Ledger Recap for Monday, January 5th, 2026. I’m Alex Mercer, and we are here to look at the tape and grade our portfolio performance from the weekend. Joining me as always is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. Marcus, a perfect sheet on paper, but the PnL tells a more complicated story. Before we dive in, a quick reminder for the desk—we track everything in prediction market units. If we buy a contract at 60 cents, we’re risking 0.60 units to win 0.40. It’s pure risk-based accounting. Marcus, let’s see the scorecard.

Marcus Webb: It’s a 7-0 sweep, Alex, but I’m not celebrating. We ended the session up 2.5 units. Mathematically, 7 wins and zero losses resulting in only 2.5 units of profit means one thing: we were far too conservative. We bought high-probability, low-yield protection instead of attacking the market’s mispricing. We left significant alpha on the table by paying 70 or 80 cents for outcomes that were effectively locks by halftime. We need to calibrate our conviction to our aggression, or we’re just trading water.

Alex Mercer: Let's get into the Film Room and look at why the market was wrong. Start with the Packers and Vikings. We took the Under 44.5 at 76 cents. The final was 16-3. It wasn't even close.

Marcus Webb: The market failed to account for the systemic collapse of the Green Bay offense without Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs. With Joe Tune under center, the chain of causation was clear: Tune’s inability to read Brian Flores’ blitz packages led to four sacks and a pathetic 34 passing yards. Because Green Bay couldn't sustain a drive, the Vikings didn't need to push the pace; they just used C.J. Ham to drain the clock. Now, for the Aggressive Alpha Review: we were cowards here. We took the Under at 76 cents. If we had taken the Vikings (-10.5) spread at 50.5 cents, we would have nearly doubled our return on the same capital. That’s a missed alpha of roughly 0.25 units per share. We saw the blowout coming and settled for the safety of the Under. 

Alex Mercer: We saw a similar story in the Dolphins-Patriots game. We held Patriots "Yes" shares at 85 cents. They won 38-10. Again, a massive margin.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. Miami was unmotivated, finishing a sub-.500 season, while New England was hunting for seeding. The talent gap was widened by the motivation gap. Rhamondre Stevenson’s 56-yard opening run forced Miami to cheat up, which allowed Drake Maye to go 14-of-18 against a gapped-out secondary. Our Missed Alpha here is glaring. We paid 85 cents for the win. If we had moved to the -11.5 spread at 53.5 cents, our profit margin would have tripled. We’re identifying the right winners, but we’re overpaying for the insurance of a straight settlement.

Alex Mercer: Transitioning to the hardwood, our Nuggets-Nets position hit. We bought the Over 218.5 at 61 cents. It cleared by over 23 points. Explain the logic there.

Marcus Webb: This was a systemic rim protection failure. With Nikola Jokic out, Denver lacked an interior anchor. This forced their perimeter defenders to crash the paint on every drive to compensate for the lack of size. That created a vacuum on the arc, and Brooklyn capitalized, shooting 7-of-9 from deep in the third quarter alone. It turned into a track meet. Even with Jamal Murray dropping 16 assists, Denver couldn't stop the bleeding. We correctly identified that no Jokic equals no defense, not just a slower offense.

Alex Mercer: On the loss side—well, we didn't have any—but the Commanders-Eagles game at 24-17 was a reminder of the Prediction Market advantage. We took Washington +9.5 at 67 cents. 

Marcus Webb: Right, and if you were holding Philadelphia shares, you were trapped. In a traditional sports book, you’re stuck until the whistle. In these markets, when the Eagles' backup threw those two fourth-quarter interceptions, you could see the implied probability of an Eagles win plummeting. A disciplined trader could have exited their Philly position or hedged with Washington shares at 99 cents when the collapse started. We held our Washington position because the systemic cause—the Eagles' backup QB being unable to handle the blitz—remained constant throughout the final ten minutes.

Alex Mercer: Marcus, let’s talk Strategic Evolution. Based on this 7-0 run, what are we adding to the Playbook?

Marcus Webb: We have a new Hypothesis: In late-season matchups, teams resting starters or those with sub-.500 records are highly susceptible to offensive stagnation. We need to stop buying the "safe" 80-cent contracts on these motivated favorites. Our Conviction Calibration rule is being updated today: If the data shows a motivation gap and a backup QB, we skip the Moneyline and move directly to Alt-Spreads. We’re here to maximize PnL, not just win-rate. 7-0 is a vanity metric; 2.5 units is the reality we need to improve.

Alex Mercer: Iron sharpens iron. We’ll be back tomorrow to see if we can turn that conviction into higher yields. Before we go, remember that market conditions change rapidly and past performance is not indicative of future results. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.