Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports. It is Friday, February 13, 2026. We’ve got a massive board to navigate as the NBA heads into the All-Star break, and we are hunting for mispriced probability. Before we dive into today’s five-pick report, a quick reminder: We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, looking at the board today, where are you finding the Alpha?

Marcus Webb: Alex, the NBA going dark for All-Star weekend means the sharp money is flooding the college markets. I’m zeroed in on the MAAC tonight—specifically that Niagara shooting variance. If the Jaspers can’t close out on the perimeter, this one gets ugly fast.

Alex Mercer: I agree, the Jaspers are a defensive sieve right now. Let's get into it. Pick number one: **Niagara Purple Eagles -2.5** against the Manhattan Jaspers. This market is currently trading at 60 cents, implying a 60% win probability. This game is tipping off in just a few hours at 6:30 PM ET. I like this because Manhattan has been a disaster on the road, losing five straight, and their defensive efficiency is bottom-tier—ranking 336th nationally.

Marcus Webb: The data is even more damning for Manhattan, Alex. Niagara shoots 39.8% from deep at the Gallagher Center compared to just 30% on the road. We have a projected true line of -4.4 here. In a low-possession game like this, Niagara’s superior 52.8% effective field goal percentage should easily overcome Manhattan’s high-volume, low-efficiency scoring. The Jaspers’ defense allows a 54.1% eFG% to opponents; that is a recipe for a blowout.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the A-10 for Pick number two: **George Mason Patriots Moneyline** against George Washington. This is trading at 75 cents on the dollar. Since this starts at 7:00 PM ET, we'll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition. I’m backing the Patriots here because George Washington is reeling. They’ve lost six of their last eight, and they are officially without star center Rafael Castro, who’s been sidelined with a foot injury.

Marcus Webb: That Castro absence is everything, Alex. He’s 15.9 points and nearly 9 boards per game that just aren't there. George Mason has a five-game head-to-head win streak over the Revolutionaries and they boast the nation’s 25th-ranked scoring defense, allowing only 66.5 points per game. Without Castro to anchor the paint, George Mason’s 21-4 squad should dominate the glass and the interior.

Alex Mercer: Pick number three takes us to the Hynes Center: **Iona Gaels -1.5** against the Quinnipiac Bobcats. This is currently trading at 55 cents. This is another 7:00 PM ET tip, so keep an eye on our evening show for late moves. Iona at home in a rivalry game is usually a sharp-money favorite, and the Gaels’ backcourt pressure tends to disrupt Quinnipiac’s rhythm.

Marcus Webb: It’s a Pace play for me. Quinnipiac wants to run, but Iona’s defensive rating at home is significantly higher than their season average. We’re seeing a high-variance environment here, but Iona’s ability to force turnovers in the half-court gives them the edge in a game with a spread this thin. 

Alex Mercer: Pick number four: **Villanova Wildcats -3.5** at Butler. We’re seeing this at 62 cents. This one starts at 6:30 PM ET. Villanova is sitting at 19-5 and they’ve been a model of consistency. I like the Wildcats to cover here because Butler’s defensive rotation has struggled against high-IQ motion offenses lately.

Marcus Webb: Villanova’s AdjEM (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is nearly 8 points higher than Butler’s right now. Butler is a high-pace team, and as we always say: high pace with more possessions generally favors the superior team and reduces variance. Villanova's 69th-ranked scoring defense should be able to contain Butler's transition game and force them into a half-court battle they can't win.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day. 

Marcus Webb: Pick number five is the **Rider Broncs Moneyline** over Fairfield. This is our high-conviction underdog play, trading at 35 cents—implying just a 35% probability. Because this price is under 40 cents, let’s be clear: this is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability, not guaranteeing a win. Have an exit target.

Alex Mercer: Why Rider, Marcus? Fairfield has been solid lately.

Marcus Webb: It’s the Pace logic, Alex. This is a low-possession matchup. In low-pace games, you get fewer possessions, which naturally increases variance. Rider is a gritty, high-variance team that thrives in these "muck-it-up" scenarios. The market is overvaluing Fairfield’s recent win streak and ignoring Rider’s defensive efficiency in the half-court. At 35 cents, the probability of an upset is significantly higher than the price suggests. This tips at 7:00 PM ET, so check back for the evening update.

Alex Mercer: To recap: We’re on Niagara -2.5, George Mason ML, Iona -1.5, Villanova -3.5, and our Dog of the Day is Rider ML. We’ll be back at 6:30 PM ET for the Evening Edition to see where the late money is landing before these games go live. Before we go, remember... 

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.