Alex Mercer: It is 6:30 PM Eastern on Wednesday, February 18, 2026. This is the Daily Sports Evening Edition. We have money on the move, markets reacting to late-breaking lineups, and a massive Summit League clash just ninety minutes away. If you’re looking for the sharpest odds and the most liquid prediction markets, you’re in the right place. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, we’ve got a live Big Ten battle and a high-conviction hold from this morning. Let’s get into the Daily Sports Evening Edition.

Marcus Webb: We are locked in, Alex. The board is shifting, but our conviction on the morning’s biggest play hasn’t budged. We’re also adding a late Big Ten play based on a critical home-road disparity that the market might still be underestimating.

Alex Mercer: Before we hit the new action, let’s run the Roll Call on our morning position. We’ve been tracking the North Dakota State Bison vs. the South Dakota State Jackrabbits all day. This was our heavyweight play from the morning report. Marcus, how is that NDSU position looking as we approach the 8:00 PM Eastern tip?

Marcus Webb: It’s a firm Hold, and honestly, my conviction has actually grown since the morning. North Dakota State is currently trading at 58 cents on the moneyline, and at the time of recording, we’ve re-verified that there are no late scratches for the Bison. Sophomore Andy Stefonowicz is confirmed in the starting backcourt, and that’s the engine of this play. Remember, NDSU has nine road wins this season—tied for third-most in the country—and they’re facing an SDSU team that is just 5-7 in the Summit League. The market volume is over $54,000 now, and the spread is holding steady at Bison minus-1.5. If you haven't filled your position yet, the interior edge for NDSU remains the deciding factor. We are holding through tip-off.

Alex Mercer: Strong start. Now, let’s look at the late board. We’re adding a Big Ten matchup that just got underway: Rutgers at Penn State. This one tipped at 6:00 PM Eastern at the Bryce Jordan Center. Marcus, what’s the play here and what are we seeing live?

Marcus Webb: We are taking the Penn State Nittany Lions Moneyline. Before tip, this was trading at 67 cents, and if you can still find it under 75 cents in the live market, you take it. The thesis is simple: Rutgers is winless on the road this season. They are a completely different team outside of Jersey. Meanwhile, Penn State is revitalized by the return of Kayden Mingo. He dropped 24 points in his return on February 14th, and his presence alongside Freddie Dilione V gives them a backcourt Rutgers simply cannot match. As we sit here now, with the game in the first half, we are monitoring the Nittany Lions' home efficiency. If the lead holds through the first ten minutes, the sharp money is going to pour in.

Alex Mercer: I love the Mingo factor there. Rutgers getting Emmanuel Ogbole back helps their interior, but it doesn't solve their road shooting woes. Let's recap the Master List for tonight's portfolio. We are holding our morning position on North Dakota State at 58 cents for their 8:00 PM Eastern tip. We are adding Penn State Moneyline, ideally entered at 67 cents or under the 75-cent live buffer.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. It’s a two-play evening with high correlation to road-performance data. NDSU is a road warrior; Rutgers is a road liability. We’re betting on those trends to hold tonight.

Alex Mercer: The clock is ticking. Penn State is live right now, and you have just about ninety minutes before the Bison and Jackrabbits get going in Brookings. Get your positions set. Since it's Wednesday, make sure to check back tomorrow for our deep dive into the mid-week numbers, and get ready for our full Ledger Recap coming this Thursday. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.