**HOST (Alex Mercer):** Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports. It’s Wednesday, February 18, 2026, and while the NBA is dormant for the All-Star break, the college hoops board is absolutely screaming with mispriced probability. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. I’m Alex Mercer, and joining me is Marcus Webb. Marcus, the markets are sleeping on some conference leaders today.

**ANALYST (Marcus Webb):** Everyone is distracted by the NBA festivities, Alex, but the "Alpha" is in the mid-majors. I’ve got my eyes on that North Dakota State moneyline. The market is treating this like a coin flip because it's a road game in Brookings, but the data says the Bison are a much higher-tier program than the price suggests.

Alex Mercer: We’ll get to the Bison in a second, but let's look at the early board. First up, we’ve got American versus Bucknell, tipping off in just a few hours at 4:00 PM ET. The market has the Over 139.5 trading at roughly 52 cents, or -110. I like this because American has been efficient lately, coming off that 75-63 win over Army, while Bucknell’s defense has been a sieve, giving up 82 to Boston U in their last outing.

Marcus Webb: The pace is the key there, Alex. Bucknell is playing at a high-possession clip, which reduces the variance and lets the better shooting team—American—dictate the score. If the pace stays high, that 139.5 is a low bar. Moving to the 6:00 PM ET window, we have St. John’s at Marquette. St. John’s is currently trading at 83 cents on the moneyline, but the spread is -9.5 at -102. I think the market is overestimating Marquette’s home-court advantage here. The Golden Eagles have lost four straight, including a defensive collapse against Xavier where they gave up 96 points.

Alex Mercer: Exactly. Rick Pitino has the Red Storm playing at a different level. They just went into Providence and handled business 79-69. They are 11-2 at home, but their road efficiency is climbing. If you can get that spread under double digits, you’re buying a team that is top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency against a Marquette team that can't find a stop.

Marcus Webb: Then at 7:00 PM ET, we have Illinois visiting USC. Illinois is a heavy favorite, trading at 84 cents on the moneyline, with the spread at -9.5. We’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition, but right now, the sharp money is laying the points with the Illini. They just dismantled Indiana by 20. USC is 12-15 and while they’ve had some close wins recently, their EPA per play on the offensive end is bottom-third in the Big Ten. Illinois’ size will be too much.

Alex Mercer: Now, let’s talk about that Summit League showdown. North Dakota State at South Dakota State. This kicks off at 8:00 PM ET. The Bison are trading at 54 cents on the moneyline, which is -120. I love this play. NDSU is 21-6, 11-1 in the conference, and they have a massive +10.2 scoring margin. They just beat North Dakota on the road by 17 points, and their sophomore guard Andy Stefonowicz is unconscious right now—he went 5-of-5 from deep on Saturday.

Marcus Webb: It’s the rebounding margin for me, Alex. NDSU is +4.8 on the glass, while South Dakota State is giving up 12.4 second-chance points per game in their losses. NDSU already beat the Jackrabbits by 11 in January. The market is giving SDSU too much credit for being at home, ignoring that NDSU has nine road wins—the fourth-most in the country. This Bison team is essentially an FBS-caliber athletic program in waiting, especially with their move to the Mountain West confirmed for the fall. The physical interior edge NDSU brings should neutralize SDSU early.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day. 

Marcus Webb: We’re heading to the 6:00 PM ET tip-off between Vanderbilt and Missouri. The market is heavily favoring Vanderbilt at -204, but Missouri is the play here at +168. That implies about a 37% probability, or 37 cents on the dollar. This is an active bet, Alex. We are buying mispriced probability here, not guaranteeing a win, so have an exit target if the Tigers get out to an early lead.

Alex Mercer: Why Missouri, Marcus? The Tigers have struggled, but the value is there.

Marcus Webb: Vanderbilt is coming off a high after beating Texas A&M, but they’ve been volatile on the road. Missouri is desperate for a home win to snap their skid, and the advanced stats show Vanderbilt’s effective field goal percentage drops by 8% when they play outside of Nashville. At +168, you’re getting a massive premium on a game that should be much closer to a pick’em.

Alex Mercer: Love it. To recap: We’re taking the Over in American/Bucknell, St. John’s -9.5, Illinois -9.5, our main play on NDSU ML at -120, and the Missouri ML as our Dog of the Day. We’ll be back at 6:30 PM ET for the Evening Edition to see how these lines have shifted before tip-off. Before we go, remember that these markets move fast and the data is only as good as your entry price. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.