Alex Mercer: Welcome back to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports. I’m Alex Mercer, and with me as always is Marcus Webb. We’ve got a massive Thursday slate today, February 19th, and the board is screaming with usage gaps and mispriced efficiency. Before we dive into the data, we encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, I’m looking at the board and the volume on some of these player props is staggering. I’m especially locked in on Jalen Brunson tonight—the market seems to be forgetting what he does to a depleted interior.

Marcus Webb: It’s about the Alpha, Alex. Everyone’s looking at the names, but I’m looking at the vacancies. Tyrese Maxey is walking into a usage vacuum in Philly tonight that the market hasn't fully accounted for yet. If you aren't tracking the "No-Embiid" splits, you’re just guessing.

Alex Mercer: Let’s start right there in Philadelphia. The 76ers host the Hawks, and we are looking at Tyrese Maxey: Points Over 28.5. This market is currently trading at 55 cents, implying a 55% probability, but I think that’s way too low. Joel Embiid is out with that shin soreness, and Paul George is officially starting his suspension. Marcus, when those two are off the floor, Maxey isn’t just a focal point—he is the entire system.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. His usage rate spikes by 8.2% without Embiid. We’re talking about a guy already averaging 28.9 points and nearly 39 minutes a night. Now he faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency against high-usage guards. They’ve given up 130-plus in their last two meetings. Maxey dropped 32 right before the break; 28.5 is a gift. This one tips off at 7:00 PM ET, so we’ll have updated market data on this in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the paint, we’ve got Rockets vs. Hornets. We’re backing Alperen Sengün: Rebounds Over 8.5. This is trading at 62 cents. Charlotte is a mess inside right now—no Moussa Diabaté, no Miles Bridges due to those suspensions. Sengün has been a monster on the glass, averaging 10.8 rebounds over his last ten games. 

Marcus Webb: It’s a mismatch on the boards. Houston is the number one rebounding team in the league at 48.6 per game, while Charlotte is 29th in Rebounding Rate. Sengün’s season average of 9.4 already clears this 8.5 line, and without Charlotte’s primary interior length, he’s going to feast on second-chance opportunities. This is another 7:00 PM ET start, so check back at 6:30 PM for the final sharp moves.

Alex Mercer: Next up, the Nets visit the Cavaliers. We are laying the points with Cleveland -12.5, currently trading at 58 cents. This might look like a big number, but our regression models are projecting a margin of nearly 18 points. Brooklyn is dead last in scoring at 107.7 points per game and they just lost their only rim protector, Nic Claxton. 

Marcus Webb: And Cleveland is getting Evan Mobley back tonight to pair with a backcourt of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden that is finally clicking. The Cavs rank 1st in the league in third-quarter scoring and field goals made. Against a sub-.400 Nets team that can’t protect the cup, Cleveland’s second-ranked offense is going to run away with this. This game also starts at 7:00 PM ET—we’ll see if the spread moves toward 14 by our evening show.

Alex Mercer: Last one before the finale: Pistons vs. Knicks at the Garden. We like Jalen Brunson: Points Over 26.5, trading at 52 cents. Detroit is missing their entire "mountain" of a frontcourt with Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart both suspended. Brunson historically destroys this core—he averaged 31.5 against them in the playoffs last year and had that legendary buzzer-beater to eliminate them.

Marcus Webb: The usage is the key here. Miles McBride is out after surgery, so Brunson’s usage is projected to hit a peak 33%. He had a rough 4-for-20 night against them recently, but that’s created a massive buy-low opportunity on this 26.5 line. He’s going to live in the paint tonight with no Duren to meet him at the rim. This kicks off at 7:30 PM ET; catch the update in our evening edition.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day. 

Marcus Webb: We’re looking at the Celtics at the Warriors. The pick is Celtics -2.5. Now, look at the price: the Warriors' Moneyline is trading at 33.5 cents, implying the market thinks they have a real shot at the upset. But this is an active bet on the favorite because the market is overvaluing the "Chase Center" factor. Since this is trading under 40 cents for the dog side, realize we are buying the mispriced probability of a Boston blowout.

Alex Mercer: I agree. Steph Curry is out with that runner’s knee, and Jimmy Butler is done for the year. Even if Kristaps Porzingis makes his Warriors debut against his former team, he’s on limited conditioning. Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.3 points and the Celtics are 6-2 against the spread as road favorites. 

Marcus Webb: Boston plays at the slowest pace in the league—95.1. In a low-possession game, their 2nd-ranked defense becomes an absolute wall. The Warriors have lost five of their last eight for a reason. Don't let the 33-cent price tag on the Warriors fool you; the value is on the Celtics laying less than a bucket. This one is a late 10:00 PM ET tip, so we'll have plenty of time to track the Porzingis news in our evening show.

Alex Mercer: To recap: we’re on Maxey Over 28.5 points, Sengün Over 8.5 boards, Cavs -12.5, Brunson Over 26.5 points, and our hammer is Celtics -2.5. We’ll be back with the Daily Sports Evening Edition at 6:30 PM ET to see where the late money is landing. Before we go, remember: Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.