Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports. It is Friday, February 20th. I’m Alex Mercer, and we are hunting for alpha in a market that is struggling to keep up with a massive wave of injury news. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, looking at the board this morning, the books are practically begging us to take some of these inflated totals.

Marcus Webb: They absolutely are, Alex. The market is lagging on these pace adjustments. I’ve got my eye on that Mavericks and Timberwolves total—it’s moving fast, but there’s still a window to exploit the defensive vacuum in Dallas.

Alex Mercer: Let’s get right into it. We’re starting in D.C. where the Wizards host the Pacers at 7:00 PM ET. We’re looking at Bub Carrington Over 4.5 assists. This is trading with high volume, and frankly, the narrative is perfect. Indiana is down to an 8-man rotation. They lost Kam Jones and Aaron Nesmith to injuries just last night, and they’re already without Haliburton and McConnell. Marcus, Carrington’s assist rate is sitting at 24.8%, and he’s facing a defense that’s essentially a turnstile right now.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. And with Trae Young and D’Angelo Russell still sidelined for Washington, Carrington is the primary engine. He’s averaging nearly eight potential assists over his last four games. Washington plays at a 104.2 pace—that’s top-tier. High pace means more possessions, which usually lowers variance for favorites, but for a facilitator like Carrington, it just means more opportunities to hit that Over 4.5. We’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: Moving to Memphis at 7:00 PM ET. The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites against the Jazz. The market price here implies a 41% cover probability for Memphis. I love fading the public here. The sentiment is 59% in favor of Utah because people see Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. on the injury report and panic. But Marcus, Utah is 7-20 on the road and they’re actively pulling back Lauri Markkanen’s minutes.

Marcus Webb: It’s a classic trap. Utah’s defense allows the most points per game in the league, and they just gave up 135 to Portland. Memphis still has the fastest pace in the NBA at 103.5. They thrive in transition, and Utah is 29th in defending the fastbreak. Even with a depleted roster, Memphis’s system creates enough high-percentage looks to cover a short number against a team that’s essentially quiet-quitting the season.

Alex Mercer: At 7:30 PM ET, we’ve got the Mavericks and the Timberwolves. We are hammering the Over 232.5. The market has already steamed this up to 237.5 in some spots, so if you can still find 232.5 or even 235, you take it. Dallas is missing their entire interior defense with Dereck Lively II and the rookie sensation Cooper Flagg both out. Minnesota’s offensive rating is a staggering 120.3 over their last five.

Marcus Webb: It’s a track meet, Alex. Minnesota is playing at the second-fastest pace in the league lately. We’re projecting 106 field goal attempts for them tonight. When you combine that with Dallas’s 54% Over rate against Western Conference opponents, 232.5 feels like a gift. Again, this tips off after our 6:30 PM ET update, so check back for the final sharp moves.

Alex Mercer: One more total for you: Heat at Hawks, 7:30 PM ET. Over 242.5. Miami has completely transformed their identity—they’re leading the league in pace at 104.0. Atlanta is on the back end of a back-to-back after Jalen Johnson went nuclear for 32 points last night. 

Marcus Webb: The Hawks are averaging 125 points at home, and Miami’s defense has regressed, giving up 118 points per game over their last ten. With Tyler Herro likely returning to boost the scoring, our model projects a total closer to 250. The market hasn’t fully priced in Miami’s new "seven seconds or less" philosophy.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day.

Marcus Webb: We’re heading to Oklahoma City at 8:00 PM ET. Give me the Brooklyn Nets +15.5. This is currently trading at 43 cents, implying a 43% probability of a cover. Now, I know Brooklyn is on a back-to-back, but the Thunder are without both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. That is nearly 50 points of offensive production sitting on the bench.

Alex Mercer: 15.5 is a massive "public tax." You’re betting against a blowout when the favorite is missing its two best creators. Even with a bad defensive efficiency, the Nets cover double-digit spreads 54% of the time. At 43 cents, the value is clearly on the dog.

Marcus Webb: Just remember, this is a value play on a mispriced probability. We aren't saying the Nets are good; we're saying the Thunder aren't 16 points better than anyone without SGA. We'll have more on this in the 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: To recap: Carrington Over 4.5 assists, Grizzlies -4.5, Mavs/Wolves Over 232.5, Heat/Hawks Over 242.5, and our Dog of the Day, Nets +15.5. Before we go, remember that prediction markets move fast. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.