Alex Mercer: Welcome to the Ledger Recap for Friday, February 20, 2026. I’m Alex Mercer, and as always, we’re here to look at the tape and grade our portfolio performance with total transparency. Joining me is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. Marcus, we’re coming off a heavy 19-game session, and the numbers aren’t pretty.

Quick reminder for the desk—we track everything in prediction market units. If we buy a contract at 60 cents, we’re risking 0.60 units to win 0.40. It’s pure risk-based accounting, focusing on the price of the share rather than traditional bookmaking.

Marcus Webb: It was a sloppy session, Alex. We went 8-11 for a net loss of 1.1 units. Our overall record now sits at 158-153-12, down 7.2 units total. We’re essentially churning volume without capturing value. We’re identifying the right side in some of these matchups, but our execution on the price entry and our conviction calibration is off. We left money on the table where we won and stayed in too long where we lost.

Alex Mercer: Let’s get into the Film Room. We’ll start with a win that highlights our "Missed Alpha." We held Cleveland Cavaliers -12.5 shares at 61 cents against the Nets. Cleveland cruised to a 112-84 victory. Marcus, the market was way off here, but did we play it too safe?

Marcus Webb: We were far too conservative. The systemic root cause for this blowout was Brooklyn’s lack of interior depth after the trade deadline. Cleveland’s twin-tower look forced Brooklyn to collapse the paint, leaving the perimeter wide open, and when Brooklyn’s shooters went cold, they had no secondary rim protection to stop the transition bleed. 

We bought the -12.5 contract at 61 cents to return a 0.39u profit. Looking at the settlement of 112-84—a 28-point gap—we should have been looking at Alt Spreads. If we had taken -22.5 shares, which were trading around 25 cents, we would have yielded 0.75u for the same risk. By taking the "safe" line, we missed out on 0.36 units of Alpha. When the systemic mismatch is that high, we need to be more aggressive with our price targets.

Alex Mercer: On the flip side, we had a "Bad Beat" in the player prop markets. We held Tyrese Maxey Over 28.5 points at 52 cents. He finished with exactly 28. 

Marcus Webb: That’s a failure of trade management, Alex. In a prediction market, you aren't trapped in a position. When Maxey had 24 points midway through the third quarter, those "Over 28.5" shares were trading at 89 cents. We had an implied probability of 89% that he’d get five more points in 16 minutes. 

The systemic issue was the Hawks switching to a box-and-one specifically to take the ball out of Maxey's hands, which slowed the game's pace to a crawl. We should have recognized the tactical shift and sold our shares at 89 cents to lock in a 37-cent profit. Instead, we held for the full settlement and lost the entire 52-cent position. In these markets, if the logic of the trade changes mid-game, you trade out. We didn't.

Alex Mercer: We also saw a massive miss on Alperen Sengün’s rebounds. We bought Over 8.5 shares at 54 cents, and he only grabbed two. What happened to the model there?

Marcus Webb: That was a total misread of the Charlotte matchup. The Hornets played a "5-out" small-ball lineup that pulled Sengün away from the rim on every defensive possession to contest perimeter shots. Because he was forced to respect the stretch-five, he was never in a systemic position to collect boards. We priced him based on his season average, but the tactical reality of the Hornets' spacing neutralized his share value from the jump.

Alex Mercer: Looking at the Strategic Evolution section of the report, it seems we’re updating our "Conviction Calibration" rule. 

Marcus Webb: Exactly. The lesson from this 8-11 run is that when our internal algorithm shows a spread edge of more than 5 points—like we had with the Cavs—we are no longer allowed to just buy the standard line. We must bifurcate the position: 50% on the standard share and 50% on an aggressive Alt Spread. We’re also implementing a "90-cent exit" rule for player props. If a contract hits 90 cents and the game environment shifts—like a blowout or a defensive scheme change—we liquidate. We’re here to grow the ledger, not hope for miracles in the final two minutes.

Alex Mercer: Iron sharpens iron. We’ll take these lessons into the weekend slate. Before we go, remember that the insights shared here are based on market data and our internal tracking. 

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.