Alex Mercer: It is Saturday, February 21, 2026. We are moving fast tonight because the board is shifting under our feet as we speak. This is the Daily Sports Evening Edition. We’ve got fresh data, late-breaking injury pivots, and some high-conviction moves to close out the night. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. If you’re looking to get your bets in before the lines move further, or if you’re tracking the odds on these late-night totals, you need to pay attention to these updates.

Marcus Webb: The volatility today is centered around the injury reports. We saw massive movement this morning, and the evening sharp money is confirming our earlier suspicions. We aren't just holding positions; in two key spots, we are doubling down based on the confirmed lineups.

Alex Mercer: Let’s get into the Re-Verify. Marcus, give us the roll call on the morning positions. First up: 76ers vs. Pelicans. We were looking at that VJ Edgecombe usage rate spike. How’s that looking now?

Marcus Webb: It’s a Double Down. Joel Embiid and Paul George are officially OUT tonight. As we sit here now, this game is just tipping off, and while the market price on Edgecombe’s points has actually dipped to 30.5 cents on some player prop markets, our thesis is stronger than ever. With the stars out, Edgecombe’s usage should clear 28%. If you can still get in at that 30-cent range, take it. The Pelicans’ defense is 27th in the league and missing Dejounte Murray. The structural opportunity is too big to ignore.

Alex Mercer: Okay, next one: Grizzlies vs. Heat. We were fading a depleted Memphis squad. What’s the status?

Marcus Webb: Another Double Down. The market steam here is incredible. The spread moved from -8.5 all the way to -11.5. Memphis has nine players out tonight. Meanwhile, Miami’s "Big 4," including a healthy Tyler Herro, are all confirmed. At the time of recording, this 8:00 PM ET tip is approaching fast. If the Heat are trading anywhere under 75 cents on the moneyline or you can grab the adjusted spread, stay aggressive. The depth disparity is simply too extreme for Memphis to keep pace.

Alex Mercer: Third on the list: Kings vs. Spurs. We liked the Over 226.5 this morning. Are we staying put?

Marcus Webb: That’s a Hold. Sacramento is sporting a 121.6 defensive rating, which is 28th in the league, and they are facing a Spurs offense averaging nearly 119 points per game. With Domantas Sabonis out, the Kings have no interior anchor. We expect a track meet. The total is holding steady, and our conviction remains high for this 8:30 PM ET tip-off.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the Midwest: Pistons vs. Bulls. We were tracking Cade Cunningham’s assist numbers. What’s the play?

Marcus Webb: Hold. Cade is coming off a 13-assist masterclass and tonight he faces a Chicago defense giving up 120 points a game. They have no perimeter stoppers to keep him out of the lane. His season average is already at 9.7 assists, and the market is currently trading his "10+ Assists" market at 55 cents. We like those odds for the 8:00 PM ET start.

Alex Mercer: Finally, the morning closer: Rockets vs. Knicks. We took the Over 213.5. Has the market caught up?

Marcus Webb: It’s starting to. We’re seeing the total climb toward 219.5 in several shops, which makes our 213.5 entry look like gold. This is a Hold. The Knicks are on the second leg of a back-to-back and the defensive fatigue is real. This 8:30 PM ET game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair as the Knicks' legs give out in the second half.

Alex Mercer: Now, let’s add some new blood to the portfolio. We have two late-breaking plays that just hit the high-conviction threshold. Marcus, take us to San Antonio first.

Marcus Webb: We are targeting Victor Wembanyama: Over 23.5 Points. This is currently trading at 58 cents. The mismatch at the Moody Center tonight is severe. Wembanyama is averaging nearly 28 points over his last three games, and he’s facing a Kings defense that is on a historic 15-game losing streak. With Sabonis out and backup Dylan Cardwell also sidelined, the Kings are starting rookie Maxime Raynaud. There is no one in that frontcourt who can contest Wemby at the rim. Even with a massive -18.5 spread, he should hit this number before the fourth quarter. 

Alex Mercer: And we’re heading to the college ranks for the final add. South Dakota Coyotes vs. Oral Roberts Golden Eagles. What are the sharps seeing here?

Marcus Webb: We’re taking the Over 148.5, currently trading at 51 cents. Our pace-adjusted modeling shows a 73-possession floor for this game. As we sit here now, they are just getting underway in Tulsa. Both teams have bottom-tier defensive efficiency, allowing around 78 points per game. South Dakota has a league-leading 44% free-throw rate, which stops the clock and adds easy points. With Jordan Crawford and Cameron Fens both active and scoring at high volumes, this should breeze past 148.5.

Alex Mercer: Let’s recap the final Saturday Portfolio before these games lock.
1. 76ers/Pelicans: VJ Edgecombe Over (Double Down)
2. Grizzlies/Heat: Miami -11.5 (Double Down)
3. Kings/Spurs: Over 226.5 (Hold)
4. Pistons/Bulls: Cade Cunningham Over Assists (Hold)
5. Rockets/Knicks: Over 213.5 (Hold)
6. Kings/Spurs: Victor Wembanyama Over 23.5 Points (Late Add)
7. SD/Oral Roberts: Over 148.5 (Late Add)

Alex Mercer: Watch those start times: South Dakota and the Pelicans are live or tipping now at 7:00 PM ET. The Heat, Pistons, and Bulls all go at 8:00 PM, followed by the Rockets, Knicks, and the Spurs nightcap at 8:30 PM ET. Get your positions locked in. Since it's Saturday, make sure to check back tomorrow for our full Ledger Recap where we see exactly how much the sharp money moved the needle this week.

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.