Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports Morning Edition for Saturday, February 21, 2026. I’m Alex Mercer, joined as always by Marcus Webb. We’ve got a massive Saturday board, and the markets are wide open for some serious value. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, looking at the board, there’s one specific total in New York that has the public completely fooled, but before we get there, I’m eyeing that Heat spread. 

Marcus Webb: It’s a bloodbath in Memphis, Alex. If you aren't laying the points with Miami today, you aren't paying attention to the "Alpha." The Grizzlies are a walking infirmary, and the market is still catching up to the fact that Tyler Herro is back and fully integrated. But first, let’s talk about the kid in Philly. VJ Edgecombe’s points prop is sitting at a 40-cent price right now—implying just a 40% probability—and that is a massive mathematical error.

Alex Mercer: I’m with you. With Paul George starting his 25-game suspension for that "improper medication" violation and Joel Embiid’s knee management keeping him out tonight, Edgecombe is the alpha and omega of that offense. He just won Rising Stars MVP for a reason. His usage rate jumps to 28.4% when the big two are off the floor. The Pelicans are missing Murray and Murphy on the perimeter; there is nobody to stop him from getting to his spots. We’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition since it tips off at 7:00 PM.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. He averaged 18.2 points over his last four games, and that was *with* rotation players healthy. Moving to the 8:00 PM ET window, we have the Heat at -8.5. Memphis is on the second leg of a road back-to-back, missing nine rotation players. No Ja Morant, no Zach Edey, no Santi Aldama. Miami has a +9.4 home Net Rating. They beat this team by 32 earlier this season. This isn't a game; it's a scheduled loss for Memphis.

Alex Mercer: The data doesn't lie there. High-pace teams usually struggle on back-to-backs, but Memphis doesn't even have the bodies to maintain their pace. Also at 8:00 PM, I’m looking at the Kings and Spurs Over 226.5. This is all about the Sabonis surgery. Sacramento's defensive rating has cratered to 120.8 since he went down on the 18th. They have zero interior length to stop Victor Wembanyama, who’s averaging 28.5 points over his last three. 

Marcus Webb: And don't forget the revenge factor. De’Aaron Fox is leading that Spurs transition attack now, and he’s going to push the tempo against his former squad. San Antonio is averaging 131 points during this seven-game win streak. Sacramento just gave up 131 to Orlando on Thursday. This total should be at 231, not 226. We’ll see if the market corrects by our 6:30 PM ET show.

Alex Mercer: One more in the 8:00 PM window: Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 assists. Cade is averaging 19.5 potential assists per game. He just carved up the Knicks for 13 dimes on Thursday. Now he gets a Chicago team that basically held a fire sale at the trade deadline. They are 27th in points allowed and have no one left to navigate screens.

Marcus Webb: The Bulls are in "Ethical Tanking" mode. They’re giving up 28 assists per game to opposing point guards. Cade is the only real engine in Detroit right now, and with Jalen Duren back in the mix to catch lobs, 10 assists is the floor, not the ceiling.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day. Marcus, what do you have for the nightcap?

Marcus Webb: We are heading to Madison Square Garden for Rockets vs. Knicks, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET. The play is the Over 213.5. This is currently trading at 35 cents, and I’m telling you, it’s the most mispriced total on the board. This is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability here, not guaranteeing a win, so have an exit target, but the value is undeniable. The market is still treating the Knicks like a defensive juggernaut, but they just got smoked by Detroit yesterday. They are tired, they are on a back-to-back, and their defensive rating is sliding.

Alex Mercer: I love the "Alpha" here because of the Houston side. Kevin Durant is fully settled in with the Rockets, and he just dropped 35 on the 19th. Houston is playing at a 101.2 pace. High pace means more possessions, which actually reduces variance for the favorite, but for a total, it’s a gold mine. The Knicks’ offense is still elite at 117.9 points per game. Fatigue usually hits the defensive legs first, not the shooters. 213.5 is an "under" number in an "over" environment.

Marcus Webb: Precisely. Our projected total is 219.2. Getting nearly six points of closing line value at a 35-cent price is how you build a bankroll.

Alex Mercer: To recap: We’re on VJ Edgecombe Over 16.5, Heat -8.5, Kings/Spurs Over 226.5, Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 assists, and our Dog of the Day is the Rockets/Knicks Over 213.5. We’ll be back with our Evening Edition at 6:30 PM ET to see where the late sharp money landed. Before we go, remember: Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.