Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports, Morning Edition. It’s Sunday, February 22nd, 2026. While the rest of the world is watching the Winter Olympics Closing Ceremony in Verona today, we are focused on the post-All-Star sprint and the massive value sitting in the NBA markets. We’re hunting for the sharpest odds and best bets to build your bankroll. I’m your host, Alex Mercer, and with me as always is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. Marcus, the trade deadline dust has settled, the All-Star break is over, and the data is screaming in a few of these matchups. I’m personally looking at that Karl-Anthony Towns rebounding line in Chicago—it looks like a total mismatch.

Marcus Webb: It’s a complete "Alpha" play, Alex. The Bulls are essentially waving the white flag with the lineups they’re trotting out. But before we get to the evening slate, we have to look at the early window. There is institutional money moving the needle in Oklahoma City, and I think the market is still catching up to the injury report.

Alex Mercer: Let’s dive right in. Our first pick is the Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 against the Thunder, kicking off in just a few hours at 1:00 PM ET. This is currently trading at 55 cents on Polymarket. I love this spot for Cleveland because they are coming in on a seven-game winning streak and they finally have Evan Mobley back in the lineup to pair with Jarrett Allen. Marcus, the interior advantage here is staggering.

Marcus Webb: It’s the only stat that matters today. OKC is missing their two primary engines in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Without them, they’re forced into a rotation that already ranks as the league’s second-worst offensive rebounding unit. Cleveland has a +7.2 Net Rating and they’re facing a Thunder squad with a -2.4 rebound margin against top-five defensive seeds. With Jarrett Allen averaging 23 and 12 this month and James Harden now steering that Cavs backcourt, Cleveland’s floor is just too high for a depleted OKC team to reach.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the 6:00 PM ET window, we’re looking at the Wizards hosting the Hornets. We are taking Bub Carrington: Points Over 10.5, which is trading at 52 cents. Tip-off is tonight, and the narrative here is all about opportunity. The Wizards' injury report looks like a CVS receipt—no Trae Young, no Alex Sarr, and D'Angelo Russell is sidelined due to trade status. 

Marcus Webb: Volume is king, Alex. Carrington’s usage rate has jumped to 23.3% over the last two weeks, up from his 17.6% season average. He’s cleared this 10.5-point threshold in nine of his last ten games. He’s facing a Charlotte defense that allows 114.2 points on the road and ranks 26th in points allowed to opposing guards. If you’re giving a high-volume shooter this much usage against the 28th-worst perimeter defense in terms of True Shooting percentage, 10.5 is a gift.

Alex Mercer: At 6:30 PM ET, we have the marquee matchup: Celtics at Lakers. We’re backing LeBron James: Rebounds Over 5.5. This is currently trading at 39.5 cents, which implies a 39.5% probability. Marcus, that price feels incredibly low for a guy who has historically dominated this specific matchup.

Marcus Webb: It’s a massive misprice. Our fair value projection is 48.5%. LeBron averages 7.4 rebounds per game over his career against Boston, and he’s cleared 5.5 in 72% of those matchups. The market isn't accounting for the fact that Jayson Tatum is out with that Achilles injury, which removes Boston’s best wing rebounder. Plus, ever since the Lakers moved Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic, their frontcourt has been thin, ranking 28th in rebounding. LeBron has been forced to anchor the glass, averaging 6.8 boards over his last four. He’ll be active tonight.

Alex Mercer: Our fourth play takes us to the 8:00 PM ET window: Knicks at Bulls. We’re taking Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds Over 10.5, trading at 54 cents. Since this starts later tonight, we’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition. But looking at the stats now, KAT is second in the NBA with nearly 12 rebounds a game. 

Marcus Webb: And he’s facing a Chicago team on an eight-game losing streak that is currently starting Guerschon Yabusele at center. Chicago allows 14.2 offensive rebounds per game. KAT has cleared this 10.5 line in four of his last five, and we are projecting him at 12.3 tonight. Under Mike Brown, the Knicks have won seven of their last ten by playing bully-ball. The Bulls simply don't have the size to keep Towns off the glass.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day.

Marcus Webb: We’re heading to Portland for the Suns vs. Trail Blazers at 8:00 PM ET. Our pick is Suns Moneyline. The market is pricing the Blazers as favorites at 58.5 cents, but that is a classic liquidity trap. They are over-correcting for Devin Booker’s hip injury. Portland is a disaster right now—they’ve allowed nearly 126 points per game over their last ten, and they’re missing Damian Lillard for the season and Shaedon Sharpe. 

Alex Mercer: I’m with you on the value here. The Suns’ depth is superior, even without Booker. Jalen Green just dropped 26 to beat Orlando yesterday. Phoenix already beat Portland 130-125 earlier this month. The market’s 41.5% implied probability for the Suns represents a 10.5% edge against our fair value projection. This is a standard value play on a team that is simply better coached and deeper than the Blazers.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. The Blazers' net rating is inferior, yet they’re priced like a lock. We’ll take the Suns at 41.5 cents all day.

Alex Mercer: To recap our morning report: we’ve got Cavs -2.5, Bub Carrington Over 10.5 points, LeBron Over 5.5 rebounds, KAT Over 10.5 rebounds, and our Dog of the Day, Suns Moneyline. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. We’ll be back with the Evening Edition at 6:30 PM ET to see how these lines have shifted before the late games tip off. Before we go, remember: Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.