Alex Mercer: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Prediction Market HQ. It is Monday, February 23rd, 2026, and we are staring down a massive slate of NBA action. If you’re looking for the sharpest bets and the most liquid odds, you’re in the right place. Before we break down the board, we encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. I’m Alex Mercer, and joining me is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. Marcus, the board is looking heavy on some high-profile matchups today.

Marcus Webb: Heavy is an understatement, Alex. We’ve got the two hottest teams in the league—the Spurs and the Pistons—colliding in a game that’s essentially a preview of the next decade of the NBA. I’m looking specifically at Victor Wembanyama’s scoring floor tonight. The market hasn’t adjusted to the personnel changes in that frontcourt yet, and there is massive alpha to be had.

Alex Mercer: We’re going to spend a lot of time on that Spurs-Pistons game because the market volume is already over a million dollars. Let’s start with the man himself: Victor Wembanyama. His scoring line is sitting at 22.5 points, and it's currently trading at 31.5 cents. Marcus, you and I both know that price implies a probability that’s way too low for a guy who just dropped 28 on the Kings this past Saturday.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. The market is discounting Wemby’s verticality because they’re looking at Detroit’s overall record, but they’re ignoring the roster reality. Isaiah Stewart is serving a league suspension, and Mason Plumlee is confirmed out. That leaves Jalen Duren as the only primary interior contest. Wemby is averaging 25.4 points over his last eight games. With San Antonio’s offensive pace jumping 3.2% in these high-volume non-conference matchups, 22.5 points feels like a clerical error. 

Alex Mercer: I agree. I like this because even if Duren plays him tough, the Spurs' usage is funneling entirely through Wemby right now. Now, on the other side of that same 7:00 PM ET tip-off, we have Cade Cunningham. His point total is set at 25.5, trading at 34 cents. This one is interesting because Cade is coming off that legendary 42-point masterclass against the Knicks. 

Marcus Webb: It’s a volume play, Alex. Cade is averaging over 22 shots per game lately. The Spurs are a bottom-10 team in point-of-attack defensive efficiency, and they’re also missing Plumlee’s interior presence. Cade is the league’s 12th-leading scorer for a reason. At 34 cents, you’re betting on the Pistons' undisputed leader to maintain the usage that has them sitting at the top of the Eastern Conference.

Alex Mercer: Now, despite those two individual scoring overs, we’re actually looking at a contrarian play for the first half of this game. The 1H Under is set at 114.5, trading at 39.5 cents. I know the public is chasing the "Over" after the Spurs put up 139 and the Pistons put up 126 in their last outings, but the data shows these are two elite top-10 defenses—Detroit is 3rd and San Antonio is 6th.

Marcus Webb: Spot on. Public sentiment is at 60.5% for the Over, but in games with a spread this narrow—just 1.5 points—teams tend to start conservatively. They’re feeling each other out. Our data shows the 1H Under hits at a 50.8% clip in these tight-spread powerhouse matchups. We’ll have updated market data on all these Spurs-Pistons plays in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: Moving over to the 8:00 PM ET window, we’ve got the Kings visiting the Grizzlies. We are looking at Malik Monk Over 11.5 points, currently with a 44% implied probability. Marcus, the narrative in Sacramento is grim with those season-ending surgeries for Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine, but that creates a massive usage vacuum.

Marcus Webb: It’s a floor play. 11.5 is a number Monk can hit in his sleep when he’s the primary engine. He dropped 19 on Saturday, confirming he’s the guy now. This game has a projected total of 233.5—that’s massive. Monk averages over 15 points per game whenever the total clears 230. At 44 cents, the market is sleeping on how much the Kings' offense now relies on his shot-making. We’ll check the liquidity on this one again in our evening edition.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day.

Marcus Webb: We’re heading to Houston for a 9:30 PM ET tip. Jazz vs. Rockets. We are backing Keyonte George Over 14.5 points. It’s trading at 35 cents, and quite frankly, that price is a gift. 

Alex Mercer: It really is. George is returning from a seven-game injury absence, which is why the price is so low, but look at the Jazz roster today. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic are both out. The frontcourt is depleted. George has a 27.6% usage rate this season and averages 23.8 points. Even if this turns into a 15-point blowout like the market expects, George is going to be the one taking the shots.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. He maintains over 14 field goal attempts per game. Because this is trading at 35 cents, I have to remind listeners: this is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability, not guaranteeing a win. Have an exit target. We’ll have a final look at the Jazz-Rockets injury report in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: To recap: We’re high on Wemby and Cade in the Spurs-Pistons clash but looking at a defensive slugfest for the first half. We’re riding with Malik Monk as the Kings' new primary option, and Keyonte George is our high-conviction Dog of the Day. We’ll be back tonight to see how these lines move before tip-off. 

Before we go, remember that market conditions change fast. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.