**HOST (Alex Mercer):** Welcome to the Ledger Recap for Monday, February 23rd. I’m Alex Mercer, and we’re here to look at the tape, grade the portfolio, and refine our algorithm. We aren’t here to celebrate wins; we’re here to find the alpha we missed. Joining me as always is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. 

Before we dive into the numbers, a quick reminder for the desk on how we track our PnL: we use pure risk-based accounting in prediction market units. If we buy a contract at 60 cents, we’re risking 0.60 units to win 0.40. It’s the only way to stay transparent in these markets. Marcus, let's see the damage.

**ANALYST (Marcus Webb):** It was a high-volume session, Alex. We went 10-8 across 18 positions, but the PnL is frankly embarrassing. We’re only up +0.7 units on the session. Our overall portfolio is still underwater at -6.5 units. 

To be blunt: 10 wins and 8 losses should net more than 7/10ths of a unit. This tells me our conviction-to-aggression calibration is off. We’re identifying the right moves but buying the wrong contracts. We’re playing it safe in the 50-cent range when the data suggests we should be aggressive on alt-lines.

Alex Mercer: Let's look at the film. We’ll start with the Wizards-Pacers game on the 20th. We held Bub Carrington Over 4.5 Assists shares at 42 cents. He finished with 7. Why was the market mispricing his facilitation?

Marcus Webb: The market priced him at a 42% implied probability because they were focused on the Pacers' defensive speed. But they missed the systemic cause: Indiana plays the fastest pace in the league, which artificially inflates the number of possessions. More possessions equal more opportunities for a primary ball-handler to find the open man. Carrington played 22 minutes and cleared the line easily.

But Alex, look at the Missed Alpha. We bought the 4.5 line. He hit 7. If we had taken a 6.5 assist alt-contract, we likely could have bought those shares at 15 or 20 cents. By being conservative, we left at least 0.4 units of profit on the table. We were right on the thesis, but too timid on the price.

Alex Mercer: Agreed. Now, let’s talk about the 76ers-Timberwolves game from last night. We took Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 points. He didn't just clear it; he detonated for 39 points on 16-of-28 shooting. 

Marcus Webb: This was a textbook systemic read. Minnesota’s defensive scheme is built around Rudy Gobert dropping to protect the rim, which forces guards to beat them with high-volume mid-range and perimeter looks. Maxey is the elite prototype for that exploit. Because Minnesota refused to step up their coverage, Maxey had a permanent green light in the drop zone. 

Again, though—Aggressive Alpha Review. He scored 39. Taking the 29.5 contract at 50 cents was "safe," but the data suggested a ceiling game. We should have been looking at a 34.5 point contract. We’re winning the trade but losing the value.

Alex Mercer: We have to address the Suns. We held Phoenix outright winner shares at 49 cents against Portland. They lost 92-77. That’s a 15-point blowout where they only scored 77 points. Was this a bad beat or a bad thesis?

Marcus Webb: It was a bad thesis. We bought noise. We assumed Phoenix's top-tier talent would overcome their lack of bench depth. The systemic failure was clear: Portland’s length on the perimeter forced 18 turnovers, and without a secondary playmaker on the floor, the Suns' offense completely stagnated in the half-court. 

This is where the Prediction Market advantage comes in. When Portland went on that 14-0 run in the third, those Suns shares were still trading around 15 or 20 cents. In a traditional sportsbook, you’re trapped. In a market, we could have sold those shares for pennies to salvage the unit. We held to zero. That’s a discipline error.

Alex Mercer: So, what’s the Strategic Evolution for the Playbook? What are we changing?

Marcus Webb: We’re implementing a "Conviction Calibration" rule. If our model shows a 20% edge over the market price, we are no longer allowed to buy the "safe" 50-cent contract. We have to move down the board to the 30-cent alt-lines. We’re hitting at a 55% clip overall, but our PnL is lagging because we aren't extracting maximum value from our high-conviction reads. Iron sharpens iron, Alex. We need to stop being satisfied with just being "right."

Alex Mercer: Precise. We’re moving from "portfolio protection" to "alpha extraction." We’ll see if the desk can execute on the next slate. 

Before we go, remember that the numbers we discuss are reflections of market volatility. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.