Alex Mercer: Good morning, sharp bettors, and welcome to the Morning Edition of Prediction Market HQ. It’s Tuesday, February 24th, and we are staring down a massive slate where the injury reports are doing more to move the odds than the actual rosters. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, we’ve got a lot of "alpha" to sift through today—from a depleted Thunder rotation to some massive totals in Atlanta.

Marcus Webb: It’s a "star-power vacuum" kind of morning, Alex. When the names Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Davis are crossed off the active list, the markets usually overreact or under-adjust. I’ve got my eye specifically on that Raptors 1H line—there is a massive volume spike there that tells me the "smart money" is already ahead of the public’s realization of just how thin OKC is tonight.

Alex Mercer: We’ll get to that Raptors value in a second, but let’s start in Atlanta. The Wizards are visiting the Hawks, and frankly, Washington’s roster looks more like an infirmary ward right now. They’re confirmed to be without Trae Young, Alex Sarr, and Anthony Davis. Despite that, the market is giving the Wizards a massive +8.5 cushion in the first half, trading at 49.5 cents. Marcus, an 8.5-point spread for just twenty-four minutes of basketball feels like a lot of room for a high-tempo team.

Marcus Webb: It’s an absolute gift of a cushion. Look, Atlanta’s defense is a sieve—24th in the league, giving up over 118 points per game. Their first-half defensive rating against bottom-tier teams is a dismal 116.2. Even without their anchors, Washington plays at a breakneck pace of 103.1. In a high-possession environment, variance usually favors the underdog to at least keep it within two or three possessions early. We’ve seen these teams split their previous meetings; Washington isn’t scared of this matchup. 

Alex Mercer: I’m doubling down on the environment in that game, too. We’re looking at the 1H Over 121.5. You mentioned the pace—Hawks at 102.5 and Wizards at 103.1. When you remove Alex Sarr and Anthony Davis from the interior, you’re essentially opening a lane for the Hawks to exploit. Atlanta leads the league in assists at over 30 per game. They are going to move the ball and find easy buckets against a Washington defense that is already the worst in the NBA, allowing 122.8 points per game. Their previous two starts this season saw 132 and 131 points in the first half. Since this tips off at 7:30 PM ET, we’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Marcus Webb: Let’s move to the North. The Thunder and Raptors are drawing massive liquidity—over $586,000 in volume on the first-half market. The line is sitting at Raptors 1H +0.5, essentially a pick'em trading at 50.5 cents. This is a classic "fade the public" spot. The public sees the Thunder's record and wants to back them, but the reality is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are out. Chet Holmgren is dealing with a back issue and is a game-time decision. Toronto, meanwhile, just dismantled the Bucks by nearly 30 points. They have the momentum and the health.

Alex Mercer: I agree. The market volume here is the "tell." To see parity on a 1H spread when the Thunder are double-digit favorites in the full-game projections screams that the sharps know OKC's bench can’t hold the line early. Toronto won the January head-to-head, and with the "stars" in street clothes, I like the Raptors to win the first half outright. This is another 7:30 PM ET tip, so keep an eye on that 6:30 PM ET update for any late-breaking news on Chet.

Marcus Webb: One more in the NBA—Cleveland and New York. We’re looking at Evan Mobley’s points total, currently set at Over 12.5. This is trading at a high conviction level. Mobley is averaging 17.7 on the season and is coming off a very efficient 15 points in limited minutes as he returns from that calf injury. With James Harden now running the point in Cleveland, the quality of looks Mobley is getting in the paint—where he takes over 9 shots a game—is elite. 

Alex Mercer: The Knicks are thin up front, and without Max Strus, Cleveland needs that interior scoring. Mobley’s average over his last three is 16.3. That 12.5 line is a lag from his injury recovery, and we’re buying the correction. Again, that’s a 7:30 PM ET start, so we’ll track the late movement in the evening show. 

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day. 

Marcus Webb: We’re going to the SEC for this one. Kentucky at South Carolina, kicking off at 7:00 PM ET. We are taking South Carolina +6.5, currently priced at 48 cents, implying a 48% probability of covering. Kentucky is the "blue blood" name that the retail money loves, but they are reeling—three straight SEC losses, including that heartbreaker to Auburn on Saturday. They are walking into an emotional hangover in Columbia. 

Alex Mercer: I love the value here because of the venue. South Carolina is coming off a 97-point performance against Mississippi State. Meechie Johnson Jr. is playing like an All-American right now, averaging nearly 20 points in conference play. Kentucky’s defense has been porous during this skid, and historical data shows they struggle in this building. The +6.5 is an inflated number because of the Kentucky brand name. We’ll have a final look at the sharp money for this SEC clash in our 6:30 PM ET edition. 

Marcus Webb: To recap: We’re taking the Wizards 1H +8.5 and the 1H Over 121.5 in Atlanta. We’re fading the shorthanded Thunder with Raptors 1H +0.5, and backing Evan Mobley to clear 12.5 points. Our Dog of the Day is South Carolina +6.5 against a struggling Kentucky squad.

Alex Mercer: Before we go, remember that the markets move fast, and information is your best hedge. We'll be back at 6:30 PM ET for the Evening Edition to see where the late money landed. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.