Alex Mercer: Welcome back to Prediction Market HQ. It is Wednesday, February 25th, and we are moving fast into the evening slate. The board is shifting, and if you’re looking to get your bets in before the early window closes, you need to move now. We’re tracking heavy volume on these odds, so let’s get straight to the action. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving.

Marcus Webb: We’ve got a massive talent vacuum tonight in Detroit and a rebounding mismatch in Milwaukee that the markets are just starting to price in. As we sit here now, tip-off for the early window is less than an hour away, and we are locking in our final positions.

Alex Mercer: Let's get into the Re-Verify. We’re doing a quick roll call on our morning positions to see where the conviction stands. Marcus, first up: the Spurs vs. Raptors. We liked San Antonio this morning. How’s that position looking?

Marcus Webb: That is a firm **Hold**. As we sit here at 6:30 PM ET, tip-off is scheduled for 7:30. We’ve verified that De'Aaron Fox and Victor Wembanyama are both active for the Spurs. While Brandon Ingram is a go for Toronto, they are still missing Jakob Poeltl inside. That interior vulnerability is exactly why we’re sticking with San Antonio. This position is currently trading at 65 cents, and we are holding for the size advantage to win out.

Alex Mercer: Next, the Cavaliers vs. the Bucks. We had high conviction here this morning. Are we staying the course?

Marcus Webb: We are doing more than staying the course; we are **Doubling Down**. The big news just broke: Giannis Antetokounmpo is officially OUT with that calf strain. That completely changes the gravity in the paint. With James Harden facilitating for Cleveland and Jarrett Allen facing a Milwaukee frontcourt without its anchor, the ceiling for the Cavs has moved significantly. This market is trading at 68 cents now, and we’re aggressive on it before the 8:00 PM ET tip.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the ice. Avalanche vs. Utah. Nathan MacKinnon is sitting on 93 points. What’s the move?

Marcus Webb: It’s a **Hold**. Puck drop isn't until 9:00 PM ET, so we have time, but the data hasn't wavered. The total is sitting steady at 5.5, which is pure value given Colorado’s league-leading offensive metrics and Utah’s tendency to play high-event hockey. If you can still get the Over at 52 cents, take it.

Alex Mercer: And finally, the late-night hammer: Oilers vs. Ducks at 10:30 PM ET. Any changes there?

Marcus Webb: No changes, that’s a **Hold**. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are confirmed active. The Ducks are still statistically the worst defense in the league when it comes to allowing high-danger chances. Edmonton’s top-ranked power play should feast. We’re locked in at 72 cents.

Alex Mercer: Alright, those are the holds. But the evening research has unearthed three new high-conviction plays. Let’s start with the Thunder and the Pistons. What are you seeing in Motown?

Marcus Webb: This is the "Talent Vacuum" play of the night. We are taking the **Pistons -5.5**, currently trading at 54 cents. Oklahoma City is on the second night of a back-to-back and they have effectively waived the white flag. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are ruled out. Isaiah Hartenstein is resting, and Chet Holmgren is downgraded to doubtful with back spasms. Detroit is the top seed in the East for a reason, and Jalen Duren—who just put up 25 and 14—is going to have zero resistance in the paint. We’ve seen over $3 million in market signals confirming this move. Lock this in before the 7:30 PM ET tip.

Alex Mercer: We’re also going back to that Cavs-Bucks game for a player prop. You’re looking at Jarrett Allen’s points?

Marcus Webb: Exactly. We’re taking **Jarrett Allen Over 15.5 Points**, trading at 52 cents. With Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley both confirmed out for Cleveland, there is a massive usage void. Allen has averaged over 20 points in his last ten games, and now he faces a Bucks defense that ranks 27th in rebounding and is missing Giannis. He should dominate the restricted area tonight.

Alex Mercer: Last one: Celtics vs. Nuggets. A potential Finals preview at 10:00 PM ET. You’re fading the Joker on the glass?

Marcus Webb: We are. We’re playing **Nikola Jokić Under 13.5 Rebounds** at 55 cents. This is a pure regression play. He’s coming off a 20-rebound outlier, but his season average is 12.5. Boston leads the league in defensive rebounding at over 74%, and with Jaylen Brown returning, their interior length is formidable. Plus, with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson out, Jokić will be forced into more of a perimeter-creation role, which historically keeps him away from the offensive glass.

Alex Mercer: Love the logic. Let’s do the Master List recap of the final portfolio for Wednesday night.

Marcus Webb: 
1. Spurs Moneyline (Hold) – 7:30 PM ET.
2. Cavaliers Moneyline (Double Down) – 8:00 PM ET.
3. Avalanche/Utah Over 5.5 (Hold) – 9:00 PM ET.
4. Oilers Moneyline (Hold) – 10:30 PM ET.
5. Pistons -5.5 (New Add) – 7:30 PM ET.
6. Jarrett Allen Over 15.5 Points (New Add) – 8:00 PM ET.
7. Nikola Jokić Under 13.5 Rebounds (New Add) – 10:00 PM ET.

Alex Mercer: That is the board. The window is closing on those 7:30 tips, so get to your apps and make your moves. We’ll be back tomorrow morning to see how the ledger settled. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.