Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports, the Morning Edition for Wednesday, February 25, 2026. We are back from the Olympic break, and the boards are finally starting to move again. Before we dive into the data, we encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. I’m Alex Mercer, and joining me is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. Marcus, the NHL is officially back today, but I’m looking at the hardwood first. That Spurs-Raptors line feels like the market is ignoring the physical reality in the paint.

Marcus Webb: It’s a classic rest-disadvantage trap, Alex. The public sees the Raptors at home and thinks they can hang, but the data on Toronto’s interior defense is ugly. I’ve got my eyes on that Spurs moneyline. San Antonio is currently trading at 81 cents, implying an 81% win probability, and frankly, that might still be too cheap given the Raptors' frontcourt situation.

Alex Mercer: I agree. The Spurs are on a nine-game winning streak and carrying a +4.2 net rating over their last five. Meanwhile, Toronto is on the second leg of a back-to-back and they’re missing Jakob Poeltl. News just hit that Scottie Barnes is questionable with that quad bruise he picked up against OKC yesterday. Without that size, how do they stop Victor Wembanyama? The Raptors are 28th in opponent paint points per game. San Antonio should dominate the glass and the interior. Since this one tips off at 7:30 PM ET, we’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Marcus Webb: Let’s move to Milwaukee for Pick Number Two. We’re looking at Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 Rebounds. With Giannis Antetokounmpo confirmed OUT for the Bucks tonight, the rebounding vacuum in that Fiserv Forum interior is massive. The Bucks have regressed to 22nd in Defensive Rebounding Percentage and are currently giving up over 12 boards a game to opposing centers. 

Alex Mercer: And Allen has been a machine. He’s cleared this 9.5 line in eight of his nine starts this month, averaging 11.2 rebounds over his last five. With Evan Mobley still on a minutes restriction, Allen is the primary vertical threat. Milwaukee is on no rest, and their legs are going to be heavy in the fourth quarter. This is a 10:00 PM ET start, so stay tuned to the evening show for any late movement on the prop markets.

Marcus Webb: Switching to the ice for Pick Three, the NHL’s return features a high-octane matchup between the Avalanche and Utah. We are backing the Over 5.5 goals, currently priced at 58 cents. Colorado enters with the league’s top offense, averaging 3.84 goals per game, and Nathan MacKinnon is playing at an MVP level with 93 points already. 

Alex Mercer: The narrative here is the "Olympic hangover" on defense. Both teams are returning from the break, but Colorado is missing defensive anchor Devon Toews. Utah isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut either, giving up 3.2 goals per game, but they’ve found their scoring touch with 20 goals in their last five outings. High-volume transition games plus missing defensive anchors equals a scoreboard workout. This kicks off at 9:00 PM ET.

Marcus Webb: We’re staying on the ice for Pick Number Four: Oilers vs. Ducks, Over 5.5 goals. This is trading at 65 cents, but our fair value model puts this closer to 74 cents. Edmonton has the number one power play in the league at 31.4%, and they’re facing a Ducks defense that ranks in the 18th percentile for goals allowed.

Alex Mercer: Remember, these teams put up 11 combined goals back in January. Edmonton’s defense was volatile before the break, conceding 16 goals in their final three games. With Leon Draisaitl confirmed and the Oilers entering a back-to-back, they’ll want to push the pace early. This is the nightcap at 10:30 PM ET, so check back with us at 6:30 PM for the final liquidity report.

Marcus Webb: Time for it. Dog of the Day. We’re heading to the EuroLeague for Pick Number Five. We’re taking Anadolu Efes on the Moneyline against Crvena Zvezda. This is a high-conviction play currently trading at approximately 30 cents. 

Alex Mercer: That is a significant mispricing. Efes has finally found their rhythm, winning three straight in the EuroLeague, while Crvena Zvezda is crumbling under the pressure of the playoff race. They’ve lost two straight and looked shaky even in their domestic cup win. 

Marcus Webb: Exactly. Efes is playing with zero pressure and they might get Shane Larkin back today, which is a massive boost. Because this is trading under 40 cents, I have to remind the listeners: this is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability here, not guaranteeing a win. Have an exit target in mind if the market swings. This one tips off in a few hours at 2:00 PM ET, so get your positions set now.

Alex Mercer: To recap: we’re on the Spurs ML, Jarrett Allen Over 9.5 boards, and Overs in both Avalanche/Utah and Oilers/Ducks—plus that Anadolu Efes dog play in the EuroLeague. We’ll be back with the Daily Sports Evening Edition at 6:30 PM ET to see where the late sharp money is landing. 

Before we go, remember that sports markets are volatile. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.