Alex Mercer: Alex Mercer here. It is Thursday evening, February 26th, 2026, and the board is moving fast as the East Coast slate prepares to tip off. This is the Daily Sports Evening Edition, and we are here to lock in our positions before the window shuts. Before we get into the numbers, we encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. If you’re looking to place your bets or hunt for the best odds on tonight’s action, you need to move now. Let’s get into it.

Marcus Webb: The market is reacting heavily to the final injury reports, Alex. We’ve seen some massive swings in the last hour, particularly in the Atlantic Division. We are holding firm on our morning convictions where the data supports it, but we’re pivoting on our entry points for these 7:00 and 7:30 PM starts.

Alex Mercer: Alright, Marcus, let’s run the roll call and re-verify the morning board. We started with the Heat versus 76ers. How is that Joel Embiid position looking?

Marcus Webb: As we sit here now, just minutes before the 7:00 PM tip in Philadelphia, Joel Embiid is officially active despite that knee management tag. The market hasn’t moved much on the news because it was largely baked in, but his presence stabilizes the Sixers' interior. We are keeping this in "Monitor" status to see how his mobility looks in the first rotation. Hold.

Alex Mercer: Second check-in on the same game: what about the Miami side of the ball, specifically Norman Powell’s status?

Marcus Webb: Norman Powell is a go, but he’s dealing with some low back tightness. With Terry Rozier and Nikola Jovic already ruled out, Miami is thin. At the time of recording, the sharp money is leaning toward Philly’s depth, but we aren't chasing the steam. We are staying in our position. Hold.

Alex Mercer: Moving to the Rockets versus Magic. We were looking at the point guard vacancy for Houston. Any update there?

Marcus Webb: Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM in Orlando. Fred VanVleet is out, which remains the primary driver of the line. However, the market is beginning to realize that Houston still has Kevin Durant leading the charge. We are seeing a slight buy-back on the Rockets' moneyline, but we’re waiting for the 7:30 tip to see if the Magic's defensive pressure can exploit the lack of a true floor general. Hold.

Alex Mercer: Fourth check-in: the Rockets are getting some reinforcements back tonight, right?

Marcus Webb: Correct. Amen Thompson and Dorian Finney-Smith are both back in the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game. This significantly improves Houston’s defensive versatility. The market hasn't fully adjusted to the defensive floor these two provide, so we are keeping this in "Monitor" status to see if the total starts to drop. Hold.

Alex Mercer: Finally, the Spurs versus Nets. San Antonio is hunting for an 11th straight win. Where do we stand on the 10-game streak?

Marcus Webb: The Spurs are 42-16 and looking like the most dangerous team in the league. Victor Wembanyama is active, though the Spurs are monitoring Stephon Castle and Keldon Johnson, who are both questionable. Tip-off is at 7:30 PM. We are holding our morning position on the Spurs' spread, but the injury uncertainty for the supporting cast keeps us from adding more. Hold.

Alex Mercer: Alright, that’s the morning slate verified. Let’s look at the late adds. You’ve got a high-usage play on Paolo Banchero.

Marcus Webb: This is the play of the evening. With Franz Wagner officially out for the Magic, Paolo Banchero is going to be the alpha and omega of this offense. We are looking at Paolo Banchero Over 26.5 Points, currently trading at 64 cents. If you can still get this under 70 cents before the 7:30 PM tip, take it. He’s coming off a 36-point performance against the Lakers and without Wagner, his field goal attempts should push into the low 20s.

Alex Mercer: I like the volume there. You’ve also got a size-mismatch play in Brooklyn.

Marcus Webb: We’re looking at Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 Rebounds, trading at 58 cents. The Nets are essentially playing Michael Porter Jr. and Noah Clowney in the frontcourt—they simply do not have the pure mass to keep Wemby off the glass. If this stays under 65 cents before the 7:30 PM start, it’s a high-conviction add. Brooklyn is 26th in rebound percentage, and Wemby is looking to bounce back after a quiet night in Toronto.

Alex Mercer: Let’s recap the Final Portfolio. We are Holding on all morning positions for Heat-76ers, Rockets-Magic, and Spurs-Nets as we wait for these games to go live. For the late adds, we are backing Paolo Banchero Over 26.5 points at 7:30 PM and Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds at 7:30 PM.

Marcus Webb: It’s a concentrated board, Alex, but the data on Banchero and Wemby is too strong to ignore. We’re focusing on usage and physical mismatches tonight.

Alex Mercer: We’ll be tracking every possession. Since it is Thursday, make sure to tune in tomorrow for our full Ledger Recap where we go through the week’s ROI and see where the model outperformed the market. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.