Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports, your morning edge for Thursday, February 26th, 2026. We’re diving into a high-stakes NBA slate where the smart money is exploiting some massive injury-related mispricing. Before we get into the numbers, we encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. I’m Alex Mercer, and joining me is our lead analyst, Marcus Webb. Marcus, we’ve got a triple-header of action in Philly tonight, and I know you’ve got your eyes on that total.

Marcus Webb: That’s right, Alex. The market is pricing this Heat-Sixers game like a track meet, but the data tells a completely different story. I’m looking at a total that is severely bloated due to some recency bias we’re going to dismantle in a second. We’re hunting alpha in the gaps between these injury reports and the actual on-court reality.

Alex Mercer: Let’s start right there in Philadelphia. The first play on the board is Joel Embiid Under 27.5 points. Polymarket has this implied at a 78% probability, or roughly 78 cents. Marcus, I like this because even though Embiid is "back," he’s not *back* back. He only logged 26 minutes in his return on Tuesday against Milwaukee, and he’s still dealing with that right knee management and shin soreness.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. You don't just jump from a five-game layoff into a high-usage scoring clinic against a Spoelstra defense. Miami has a defensive rating of 111.2 and ranks in the top five for defensive rebounding. They aren't giving up second-chance points, and they are going to force Embiid into a slow, half-court grind. With a projected pace of just 96.4, the possessions simply aren't there for him to hit 28. He’s on a strict 28-to-32 minute cap, and in this environment, that’s a hard ceiling.

Alex Mercer: While we’re fading Embiid, we’re actually buying Tyler Herro. His scoring prop is set at 17.5, trading at 52 cents. I’m backing the Over here because the usage is undeniable. Terry Rozier is officially out, and Davion Mitchell is a game-time decision with an illness. Herro is the primary engine left for Miami’s perimeter. He took 17 shots in just 26 minutes last game—that is elite volume.

Marcus Webb: It’s pure math, Alex. Herro is averaging 0.6 points per minute since returning from that rib injury. If Mitchell sits, Herro’s usage rate should skyrocket against a Philly defense that is missing Paul George’s length due to that 25-game suspension. We have his fair value at 58 cents, giving us a 6% edge. This game tips at 7:00 PM ET, so we’ll have updated market data on these props in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition.

Alex Mercer: To round out the Philly coverage, we are taking the Under 238.5 for the game total. It’s trading at 45.5 cents. The market is clearly overreacting to the Sixers' recent 135-point outbursts, but those came against much softer defenses than Miami.

Marcus Webb: The market is chasing ghosts. Those high scores happened while Embiid was out and the Sixers were playing a high-variance, small-ball style. With Embiid back, the pace slows down, and as we mentioned, Miami’s playmaking is gutted without Rozier. We project the true fair value closer to 234.5. This is a classic "fade the noise" play.

Alex Mercer: Moving over to the 7:30 PM ET window, we’ve got the Rockets vs. the Magic. We’re looking at Kevin Durant Over 24.5 points, currently trading at 66.5 cents. Marcus, Orlando is finally back home, but they’re coming off a grueling four-game road trip. That usually spells trouble for defensive intensity.

Marcus Webb: Tired legs lead to late closeouts, and you cannot be late on Kevin Durant. He’s been incredibly consistent, posting 30-plus in two of his last three full-usage games. While he’s been playmaking more lately, his scoring efficiency in the mid-range remains the league benchmark. Our fair value projects this at 72 cents. With the liquidity we’re seeing on Polymarket, this is a very stable position to take before the evening shift.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day.

Marcus Webb: We’re heading to Brooklyn for this one. The play is San Antonio Spurs -11.5. I know, laying double digits on the road for a "Dog" play sounds counter-intuitive, but the value is in how much the market is underestimating this mismatch. The Spurs are on a 10-game winning streak, and Victor Wembanyama is averaging nearly 24 points and 4 blocks over that span.

Alex Mercer: And look at the Nets. They rank dead last in the NBA in scoring at 106.9 PPG and have lost four straight. Brooklyn has a road net rating of -9.2. They have no one who can match Wembanyama’s height or the Spurs' defensive efficiency. The Spurs are covering the spread at a 58.4% clip at home, and that dominance is traveling. This game also kicks off at 7:30 PM ET, so keep an eye on our evening update for any last-minute sharp moves.

Marcus Webb: Brooklyn simply doesn't have the firepower to keep this within two touchdowns. We’re buying the Spurs' momentum here.

Alex Mercer: To recap today’s board: We’re fading Embiid’s total, betting on Herro’s increased usage, taking the Under on the Heat-Sixers game total, and backing Kevin Durant and the Spurs to dominate their matchups. We’ll be back with our 6:30 PM ET evening edition to see where the late money landed. Before we go, remember: Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.