Alex Mercer: Welcome back to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports. I’m Alex Mercer, and we are hunting mispriced probabilities on a Friday slate that has the public running in the wrong direction. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Polymarket’s data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus, we’ve got some serious edge today, particularly in the interior of these NBA matchups.

Marcus Webb: The "Alpha" today is all about the absences, Alex. The public is obsessed with the big names being out—Mitchell, Tatum—but they aren't looking at the secondary usage spikes. I’ve got my eyes on that Noah Clowney total in Boston. The market hasn’t caught up to the youth movement in Brooklyn yet.

Alex Mercer: Let’s dive in. First up, we’re looking at the Cleveland Cavaliers visiting the Detroit Pistons at 7:00 PM ET. We’ve got two plays here. First, Jarrett Allen’s points over 14.5, currently trading at an implied probability of 55%. I love this because the Pistons are missing their primary enforcer, Isaiah Stewart, due to that suspension. Without Stewart’s verticality in the paint, Allen is going to feast.

Marcus Webb: Exactly. And with Donovan Mitchell officially ruled out with that groin injury, the Cavs' offense has to flow through the post. Allen has cleared this 14.5 line in five straight games, averaging nearly 20 points on a ridiculous 71% shooting. Detroit is a top-five team in terms of giving up points to opposing centers. This isn't just a mismatch; it’s a layup line.

Alex Mercer: Staying in the same game, we’re looking at the Cavaliers Moneyline, which the market is pricing at only 30.5 cents. That implies a 30.5% win probability. Marcus, the market is treating the Mitchell injury like a death sentence for Cleveland, but our model has them at a 39.1% win probability.

Marcus Webb: It’s a massive public overreaction. People are forgetting that Evan Mobley is back in the rotation to anchor that defense alongside Allen. Detroit is coming off an emotional high after upsetting the Thunder on Wednesday—that is a classic letdown spot. The Pistons are 43-14 and sitting atop the East, but they aren't *this* much better than a defensive-minded Cavs team that still has plenty of weapons. We're seeing a 9% edge here.

Alex Mercer: Moving to 7:30 PM ET, we’ve got the Brooklyn Nets at the Boston Celtics. We’re targeting Noah Clowney’s points over 11.5, trading at 53 cents. Clowney has been a revelation lately, averaging 13.6 points over his last five. 

Marcus Webb: He dropped 22 on Tuesday, Alex. Brooklyn is in full-on development mode, especially on the second leg of a back-to-back. With Jayson Tatum out for Boston with that Achilles issue, the Celtics' interior defense is significantly softer. Even with a massive 17.5-point spread, Clowney’s usage is locked in around 22%. He’ll get the minutes and the shots regardless of the score.

Alex Mercer: Finally, we’re heading to the ice for a late one. Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks, kicking off at 10:00 PM ET. We’re looking at the Over 4.5 goals. We’ll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition, but right now, the total is sitting too low.

Marcus Webb: Anaheim ranks 30th in goals against, giving up 3.5 a night. They just played a wild 6-5 game against Edmonton. Meanwhile, Winnipeg is decimated on the blue line with Josh Morrissey and Neal Pionk both hitting the IR this week. You’ve got a slumping Lukas Dostal in net for the Ducks and a Jets power play clicking at 28.5%. This total is poorly positioned for two teams that can’t stop a beach ball right now.

Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day.

Marcus Webb: We're going back to the Motor City. The Dog of the Day is the **Cavaliers Moneyline** at 30.5 cents. This is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability, not guaranteeing a win. Have an exit target. The market is giving you a massive discount because Mitchell is in street clothes, but the Allen-Mobley frontcourt has enough defensive rating stability to keep this close. Detroit is overvalued after the OKC win. We’re fading the hype.

Alex Mercer: Love it. To recap: we’re on Jarrett Allen Over 14.5 points, Noah Clowney Over 11.5 points, the Jets/Ducks Over 4.5, and our Dog of the Day is the Cavs Moneyline. We’ll be back with the Evening Edition at 6:30 PM ET to see where the sharp money moved before tip-off. Before we go, remember: Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.