# PREDICTION MARKET HQ: DAILY SPORTS ## Morning Edition — Tuesday, March 24, 2026 --- Alex Mercer: Welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports — your Morning Edition for Tuesday, March 24th. I'm Alex Mercer. Marcus Webb: And I'm Marcus Webb. We've got five plays on the board today — NBA, college hoops, and hockey — and Alex, I'll say it right now: I've got my eyes on that Kings-Hornets total tonight. There is serious money to be made on that number. Alex Mercer: We're going to get into all of it. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us — as always, we'll be using Polymarket's data to track where the sharp money is moving. Today's card is heavy on market inefficiencies — public money hammering one side, sharp data pointing the other way. That's where the bets live. Let's get into it. --- ## PICK 1: KINGS vs. HORNETS — OVER 226.5 Alex Mercer: Alright. Kings-Hornets, tip-off tonight at 7 PM Eastern. This one's been on my radar all morning. The Over 226.5 is trading at 66.5 cents — implies roughly a 66.5% probability. Our model has fair value at 74 cents. That's a meaningful gap, Marcus. And when I look at *why* it exists, I actually think the market is being lazy here. Marcus Webb: It's not even lazy — it's just wrong. Alex Mercer: Right. So here's the setup. Sacramento has 11 players on the injury report. Sabonis is out, LaVine is out, Westbrook is out. Coach Mike Brown confirmed this morning that *rookie* Devin Carter is getting a second career start. That sounds like a reason to fade the Over, right? Fewer stars, less offense— Marcus Webb: Except that's backwards. Alex Mercer: Exactly. Because what you actually get is a skeleton crew running a chaotic, high-variance, up-tempo style with no defensive anchor in the paint. The Kings are allowing 121 points per game — that's 28th in the league in defensive rating. And now you're removing Sabonis, who was the last credible interior presence they had. Marcus Webb: And you're putting them against a Hornets offense that's running plus-12.4 in efficiency versus league average. That's top five in the league. These teams are both top-ten in pace over the last five games. This is a track meet with no brakes. Alex Mercer: Maxime Raynaud had a 20-10 double-double on Sunday, which tells you the young guys can *produce* — but they cannot stop anyone. And Charlotte is going to exploit that all night. The model projection is 231.5. The market is sitting at 226.5. That's five full points of cushion. I like this number at 66.5 cents. We'll have updated market data on this one in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition before tip. --- ## PICK 2: KINGS +16.5 Alex Mercer: We're staying in Sacramento for Pick 2, but flipping to the spread. Kings plus 16.5 — same game, different angle. This one's trading at 34 cents, which implies the market thinks there's roughly a 34% chance Sacramento keeps it within 16 and a half. Marcus, walk me through the alpha here. Marcus Webb: So 96.5% of the moneyline volume is on Charlotte. The public sees a depleted Kings roster and they're piling on. And look — that instinct isn't *wrong*, but it's already fully priced in. The line has moved to plus-16.5, and historically, NBA double-digit underdogs cover at 52.4%. That's the baseline. You're getting a historically favorable spot at a price that implies you should lose it more often than not. Alex Mercer: And here's what I keep coming back to — Malik Monk. This guy just dropped 32 points in a win over Brooklyn. In a game where Sacramento is supposedly tanking. They beat Brooklyn. That's the context. This isn't a team that's laying down. Marcus Webb: The lottery positioning narrative is real — local media in Sacramento is openly talking about it — but these young guys are still competing. Monk isn't going out there and mailing it in. Alex Mercer: Right. And the spread ceiling argument is important here. When a line reaches plus-16, plus-17 territory, you start to see garbage time, intentional fouling, all the mechanics that compress the final margin. The Kings are 2-for-2 ATS this season when catching 16.5 or more points. Small sample, but it's consistent with the broader data. At 34 cents, our model sees a 17% edge. This is a value play, not a chalk play. Tip-off at 7 PM Eastern — we'll revisit in the evening show. --- ## PICK 3: JAMES HARDEN ASSISTS OVER 7.5 Alex Mercer: Pick 3. Magic versus Cavaliers, 8 PM Eastern tip — so we'll have updated data in the evening edition. This one is a player prop: James Harden assists, over 7.5. Now, Marcus — before you say anything — I know what the skeptic's argument is. Seven and a half assists is a *high* number. Marcus Webb: It's not high for Harden right now. That's the thing. His season average is 9.0. His last two games? He's averaging 13.5 assists. He had *sixteen* against Golden State back in November. The man is locked in as a pure facilitator. Alex Mercer: And the situational context makes this even cleaner. Kawhi Leonard is still sidelined. Norman Powell is dealing with a hamstring. So the Clippers — sorry, force of habit — the Cavaliers are facing a Harden who has *no* other creation outlet to defer to. Every possession flows through him. Marcus Webb: His five-game assist floor is 7.0. So the floor is basically the line. And we're getting 6% edge versus sharp markets on the over. That's not massive, but it's real. Alex Mercer: And there's a momentum hook here too. Harden had 10 assists in his last game — the comeback win over New Orleans — and he said postgame that his "rhythm is back." That's a player who *knows* he's in a groove. The market price on this one — we're buying the over at a price that implies roughly 50-50 on a guy whose recent data says it should be closer to 65-35. I'll take that all day. Marcus Webb: Big time. --- ## PICK 4: WICHITA STATE +4.5 (NIT QUARTERFINAL) Alex Mercer: Pick 4. College hoops. NIT Quarterfinal tonight — Wichita State Shockers taking on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tip-off at 7 PM Eastern, so this one is coming up fast. Wichita State plus 4.5, trading at — Marcus, what's the current market price on this? Marcus Webb: Fourteen cents. Fourteen cents. The market has this at a 14% implied probability. Our model has fair value at 48%. That is a *34-point* edge against public sentiment. Alex Mercer: So 86% of public money is on Tulsa. And here's what that public money doesn't know, or doesn't care about — Tulsa's leading scorer, David Green, is out. Sixteen-point-three per game, shoulder injury, not playing tonight. That's not a minor absence. That's the guy you built your offense around. Marcus Webb: And Wichita State has beaten Tulsa *twice* already this season. Most recently an 81-68 win on March 14th — ten days ago. This is the fourth time these teams are meeting. Tulsa coach Eric Konkol literally said in yesterday's presser that "beating a team three times in a row is the hardest thing in sports." He's already managing the revenge narrative. Alex Mercer: Meanwhile, Kenyon Giles is on fire. He's averaging 28.5 points per game over his last two NIT contests, hit 14 three-pointers in that span. Tulsa knows it — they're reportedly prepping a box-and-one to stop him. But Wichita State just went on the road and blew out Oklahoma State 96-70. This team has won 9 of their last 10. Marcus Webb: See, that's the thing — the public is looking at the seed line and the name recognition and just... clicking Tulsa. Without doing any of the work. Alex Mercer: And we're buying that inefficiency at 14 cents on a team that should be closer to 48 cents. This is the kind of spot where sharp money lives. Tip-off at 7 PM Eastern — get in before the line moves. --- ## THE FINALE: DOG OF THE DAY Alex Mercer: Time for it. Dog of the Day. Marcus Webb: Dog of the Day. Avalanche versus Penguins. Over 6.5 total goals. Trading at — and this is the key number — the fair probability on this is modeled at 76 cents. The market is lagging on this one. Alex Mercer: Before we get into the why — this one starts at 7 PM Eastern tonight, so we'll have a final check in the evening show. But let's build the case now because this is clean. Marcus Webb: It is *clean*. Start with the Penguins. They're allowing 4.0 goals per game while averaging 4.4 offensively over their last five games. That's a combined average of over 8 goals per game just from Pittsburgh's recent splits alone. And Evgeni Malkin is out with an upper-body injury — which means their defensive structure is compromised AND their offensive anchor is gone, so this team is playing loose and desperate. Alex Mercer: And then you add the goalie situation, which is — honestly, Marcus, this might be the biggest single factor. Marcus Webb: Arturs Silovs is starting for Pittsburgh. Rookie. He's allowed four or more goals in four of his last five starts. Four of five. Alex Mercer: Against an Avalanche team that leads the league in scoring. And Colorado is getting Logan O'Connor back tonight — first game of the season for him after hip surgery. Gabe Landeskog is also back. This is the healthiest Colorado forward group all year. There is going to be *traffic* in front of Silovs all night. Marcus Webb: Now — full transparency — Colorado is starting Scott Wedgewood in net, who was pulled in his last start against Pittsburgh. A 7-2 loss on March 16th. So this isn't a one-way street. Alex Mercer: Right. But that March 16th game? That's actually *evidence*, not a warning. That head-to-head produced nine total goals. We're betting the Over 6.5 in a matchup that just went over by two and a half goals eight days ago. Marcus Webb: The combined scoring average over the last five games is 7.1 goals. The line is 6.5. The math is straightforward. Alex Mercer: At 66 cents, this is a standard value play — the market is underpricing a high-probability outcome. This is our Dog of the Day. Get in before puck drop at 7 PM Eastern, and we'll have live updates in the evening show. --- ## OUTRO Alex Mercer: Alright. Let's run it back. Five plays for Tuesday, March 24th. Kings-Hornets Over 226.5 — market sleeping on a track meet with no defense. Kings plus 16.5 — buying the historically favorable double-digit dog at a steep discount. Harden Over 7.5 assists — locked-in facilitator with no one else to share the load. Wichita State plus 4.5 — the sharpest value on the board, 14 cents on a team our model has at 48. And your Dog of the Day: Avalanche-Penguins Over 6.5 — rookie goalie, depleted Pittsburgh defense, and a head-to-head that just went nine goals eight days ago. Marcus Webb: All five of these games tip off or drop the puck around 7 PM Eastern. We will be back with live market data, line movement, and any last-minute injury news in the Daily Sports Evening Edition at 6:30 PM ET. Don't miss it. Alex Mercer: Before we go, remember — prediction markets move fast, information changes, and no play is a lock. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. --- **