# PREDICTION MARKET HQ: DAILY SPORTS ## Evening Edition — Wednesday, March 25, 2026 --- **HOST (Alex Mercer)** | **ANALYST (Marcus Webb)** --- Alex Mercer: It is Wednesday evening, March 25th, and the bets are live, the odds are moving, and we are not wasting a single second. I'm Alex Mercer — jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice and ride along with us tonight. We will be using Polymarket's data to track where the sharp money is moving. Let's get into the Daily Sports Evening Edition. --- ### 🔄 SEGMENT ONE: THE RE-VERIFY — ROLL CALL --- Alex Mercer: Alright Marcus, four morning positions on the board. Let's run the roll call fast. First up — Bulls versus 76ers. How's that position looking heading into tip-off? Marcus Webb: Big story here, Alex. Paul George is officially back in the lineup tonight — ends a 25-game suspension. That is not a small thing. And Joel Embiid is upgraded to questionable, so we could be looking at a "Process" reunion on the floor. Meanwhile, the Bulls are shorthanded — Jaden Ivey is out with the knee, Zach Collins is out with the toe. That pushes Josh Giddey into a massive usage role as Chicago's primary playmaker. Status on this one: **Monitor, leaning active.** The injury news is breaking late and the market is still digesting it. Alex Mercer: Right. PG13 coming off a 25-game absence into a competitive game — that's a rust factor the market might be underpricing. We hold and watch the open. Next — Thunder versus Celtics. Marcus, how's that position? Marcus Webb: Still monitoring, no final score confirmed at time of recording. But here is the context that matters: Boston is playing this one at TD Garden with genuine revenge motivation after a 104-102 loss to OKC just two weeks ago. The Celtics have the league's number-one ranked defense. On the other side, SGA is averaging 31.5 points per game and has dropped 34-plus in each of his last two meetings against this Boston squad. This game has "wire-to-wire intensity" written all over it. Status: **Hold and monitor.** Alex Mercer: Can't look away from that one. Alright — Heat versus Cavaliers. How are we sitting there? Marcus Webb: Continuing to monitor — no confirmed score yet as we record. But the narrative is shifting. Cleveland has ruled out Jarrett Allen for his tenth straight game, Max Strus is also out — the Cavs frontcourt is genuinely depleted. So it falls on Donovan Mitchell and James Harden to carry the load. Miami, on the other hand, has cleared Andrew Wiggins and Nikola Jovic to play, but they are trying to snap a five-game losing streak without Terry Rozier. This one is a mess of walking wounded on both sides. Alex Mercer: Two banged-up rosters, desperation on Miami's end. Status? Marcus Webb: **Hold.** The injury picture actually tightens the range of outcomes here. We don't bail on a position just because it's messy. Alex Mercer: Exactly. Last morning position — Bruins versus Sabres. Marcus? Marcus Webb: This one's the most interesting of the four. Boston starts Joonas Korpisalo in net — and he has been rough in March. We're talking a 4.57 GAA and an 0-1-2 record this month. That is not a man you want between the pipes in a high-stakes game. Buffalo, meanwhile, is playing for first place in the Eastern Conference tonight. A win gives them the most points in the East. And they may get defenseman Connor Timmins back — he's been out 38 games and is reportedly "ready to go." Alex Mercer: Goaltending mismatch plus Buffalo playing for seeding. Status? Marcus Webb: **Hold.** The Sabres' motivation is real and Korpisalo's numbers speak for themselves. --- ### 🚨 SEGMENT TWO: THE LATE ADDS --- Alex Mercer: Alright — morning book is intact. Now let's talk new money. Two late plays coming in tonight. Marcus, walk me through them. Marcus Webb: First one is a player prop inside the Thunder-Celtics game — and this is a name that might surprise people. We're looking at **Luguentz Dort Over 5.5 Points.** Now, I know what you're thinking — Alex Mercer: Dort? He's been shooting under 38 percent on the season — Marcus Webb: Thirty-seven point two, to be exact. But here's why we're not scared of that number. He's logging 27.7 minutes per game as a high-minutes starter on the healthiest roster in basketball. OKC has won 12 consecutive games. They're the top seed in the West. Dort is on the floor because they trust him as a versatile stopper — and the Celtics rank 28th in three-point distribution allowed to perimeter wings. That is a real number. He's averaging 5.5 three-point attempts per game, and 5.5 points is a season-low floor. Volume gets him there. Alex Mercer: What's the market saying? Marcus Webb: This is trading at a price that suggests the market is anchoring entirely on his shooting efficiency and ignoring the minutes and matchup. If you can still get this under 55 cents when you're hearing this, that is where the value lives. **Conviction: Hold.** Alex Mercer: See, that's the thing — efficiency metrics get overweighted on props. Minutes and matchup are the real drivers. I like it. Second late add? Marcus Webb: This one is the bigger swing. **Ryan Rollins Over 18.5 Points — Bucks versus Trail Blazers.** Giannis Antetokounmpo is out with the knee. Kevin Porter Jr. is out with the knee. Kyle Kuzma is questionable with the Achilles. The Bucks have opened as 12.5-point underdogs in Portland. Alex Mercer: Twelve and a half. That's a number. Marcus Webb: Big time. But here's the flip side — with that roster gutted, Rollins becomes the primary offensive engine. He just dropped 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists against the Suns on March 21st. He's recorded 13-plus points in 11 consecutive games. His usage rate in competitive minutes has climbed to 31.4 percent. And Portland is allowing 117 points per game on defense. He will see 17 to 18 shot attempts tonight. That gets him to 18.5. Alex Mercer: What's the market price? Marcus Webb: Trading around 58 cents right now. Given the injury confirmations, I'd expect this to drift higher before tip. If you're hearing this and can still get it under 62 cents — that's the window. Portland's Deni Avdija is the counter-narrative here — 24.1 points per game, he'll get his — but this isn't about the Blazers. This is about Rollins in a vacuum of teammates. Alex Mercer: Rollins as the last man standing on the Bucks. Alright — I'm in on both. Let's build the master list. --- ### 📋 SEGMENT THREE: THE MASTER LIST --- Alex Mercer: Rapid fire — final portfolio for Wednesday night. Here's where we stand. Marcus Webb: **Bulls versus 76ers** — Monitor, leaning active. PG13 returns, Embiid questionable, Bulls shorthanded. Market is still adjusting. Watch the open. Alex Mercer: **Thunder versus Celtics** — Hold. SGA versus the league's best defense at TD Garden. Revenge game. High intensity, high stakes. Marcus Webb: **Heat versus Cavaliers** — Hold. Depleted Cavs frontcourt, Miami desperate to end a five-game skid. Messy but positioned. Alex Mercer: **Bruins versus Sabres** — Hold. Korpisalo's 4.57 GAA in March against a Buffalo team playing for the Eastern Conference points lead. Sabres' motivation is real. Marcus Webb: **Luguentz Dort Over 5.5 Points** — Late add. Under 55 cents is your entry window. Minutes and matchup over efficiency. Alex Mercer: **Ryan Rollins Over 18.5 Points** — Late add. Under 62 cents. Usage surge, depleted roster, Portland allowing 117 per game. That is the portfolio. --- ### ⏰ START TIMES --- Alex Mercer: Here are your start times for tonight. Bulls-76ers tips off at 7 PM Eastern. Thunder-Celtics follows at 7:30 Eastern — that's the marquee matchup. Heat-Cavaliers also at 7:30. Bruins-Sabres drops the puck at 7 PM Eastern. And Bucks-Trail Blazers tips at 10 PM Eastern out in Portland — that's your late-window play, which means you have time to get your Rollins position set before tip. No excuses on that one. --- ### 🎙️ OUTRO --- Alex Mercer: That is the Wednesday evening book. Six positions, two late adds, all confirmed. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi, Polymarket, or your prediction market app of choice with us — as always, we will be using Polymarket's data to track where the sharp money is moving. Marcus Webb: And remember — conditional entries only on the live markets. If the price has moved past our thresholds by the time you're hearing this, you wait for the next entry point. Discipline is the edge. Alex Mercer: That's the whole game. Alright — Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. --- **