# LEDGER RECAP β€” Monday, April 6th, 2026 ### "Grading the Portfolio" --- **HOST (Alex Mercer):** Welcome back to Ledger Recap. I'm Alex Mercer. Across from me, as always, is Marcus Webb. Marcus, we've got 28 positions to grade from a midweek-weekend stretch, and I'll be honest β€” the headline number is going to frustrate some people. **ANALYST (Marcus Webb):** It should. Let's get into it. Alex Mercer: Quick reminder for the desk first β€” we track in prediction market units. If we buy a contract at 60 cents, we're risking 0.60 units to win 0.40. Pure risk-based accounting. What you paid is what you risked. --- ## πŸ“Š THE SCORECARD Alex Mercer: Alright. The Scorecard. This session: 12 wins, 13 losses, 3 pushes across 28 positions. Net result β€” plus 1.2 units. Marcus Webb: Twelve and thirteen. On the right side of the ledger, barely. Alex Mercer: And overall, we're now 308-265-18 on the season, sitting at plus 8.7 units total. But Marcus, let's be real about this session. Twelve wins, and we only cleared 1.2 units. That math tells a story. Marcus Webb: It tells the whole story. Look at where the volume was concentrated. Our big winners β€” Charlotte at 9 cents, Boston over Milwaukee at 7 cents β€” those were small-dollar, high-upside contracts. We risked almost nothing to win almost a full unit each. Meanwhile, our losses? We were buying at 44, 46, 47, 49 cents. Risking near-half-unit chunks and losing them. The win rate barely saved us. Alex Mercer: So we won the long shots and lost the chalk. Marcus Webb: Repeatedly. That's the structural problem this session. --- ## 🎬 THE FILM ROOM Alex Mercer: Let's go to the film room. I want to start with the two that saved this session β€” Charlotte at 9 cents over Indiana, and Boston over Milwaukee at 7 cents. Marcus, those are massive implied probability mismatches. Charlotte was priced at 9% to win. Marcus Webb: And they won by 21. Final score 129-108. Here's what the market missed β€” Kon Knueppel. This kid just broke the franchise record for three-pointers in a single season, surpassing Kemba Walker's mark. The market was pricing Charlotte as a lottery team on autopilot. But this roster has been quietly building something real. They clinched a winning season with this win, by the way. One year after going 19-and-whatever. The market hadn't updated its prior. Alex Mercer: So the market was still pricing last year's Hornets. Marcus Webb: Exactly. Stale prior, fresh team. We bought at 9 cents, settled at a dollar. That's 91 cents of profit per share. Alex Mercer: Now β€” aggressive alpha review. We bought at 9 cents. Were we too conservative? Marcus Webb: I mean β€” at 9 cents, you're already being aggressive. The question is position sizing. We treated it like a speculative flier. If our conviction was there on the roster evolution thesis, we should've sized it closer to a lead play. We left units on the table not on the price, but on the volume. Alex Mercer: Same story on Boston-Milwaukee at 7 cents? Marcus Webb: Identical structure. Celtics win 133-101. Bucks held Giannis out β€” and the NBA is now reportedly investigating Milwaukee for player participation violations, because Giannis told the media he was healthy. So the market priced a full-strength Bucks team. We knew something was off. We bought at 7 cents. We should've bought more. Alex Mercer: The lesson there is: when you have an information edge on roster availability, that's not a spec. That's a lead play. Marcus Webb: That's exactly it. Conviction should drive sizing. We had conviction. We didn't size accordingly. --- Alex Mercer: Alright, let's talk about two losses that I want to examine closely. First β€” Minnesota over Detroit. We bought Timberwolves shares at 40 cents. Detroit wins 113-108. Marcus Webb: This one stings because it's part of a pattern this session. We went back to the well on Minnesota twice β€” lost both. This game, Anthony Edwards has now missed eight of the last ten games with a knee issue. Without Edwards, Minnesota's half-court offense loses its primary creator. They become reliant on perimeter movement and secondary playmaking, and Detroit β€” who just clinched the Eastern Conference's number one seed, by the way, first time since 2007 β€” they're a disciplined defensive team. They clogged the paint, forced Minnesota into contested mid-range looks, and won going away. Alex Mercer: So the root cause isn't just "Edwards was out." It's that without Edwards, Minnesota has no reliable half-court initiator, which means they're forced into a pace-dependent styleβ€” Marcus Webb: β€”and Detroit controls pace. Right. They're built for exactly that game. We bought a 40-cent contract on a team that was structurally disadvantaged and we didn't price in the injury properly. Alex Mercer: Bad thesis, not a bad beat. Marcus Webb: Bad thesis. We own that. --- Alex Mercer: Now the one I really want to talk about. Golden State over San Antonio. We bought Warriors shares at 12 cents. Victor Wembanyama drops 41 and 18. Final score, Spurs 127, Warriors 113. Marcus Webb: Twelve cents. We were buying a decimated Warriors roster β€” multiple starters out β€” against a Spurs team on a ten-game win streak, with Wembanyama playing like a generational force. The market had Golden State at 12% implied probability for a reason. Alex Mercer: So why did we take it? Marcus Webb: Cheap contract, high upside. The logic was: Warriors are a professional team, Spurs might look ahead, rest Wemby on a back-to-back situation. None of that materialized. Wemby played 40-plus minutes and was dominant. The chain of causation here is straightforward β€” Golden State's depleted roster meant they had no answer for Wembanyama in the post or on the perimeter. He was drawing double-teams, kicking out, and then attacking closeouts. The Warriors had no defensive versatility left on the bench to throw different looks at him. Alex Mercer: We lost 0.12 units. Small damage. But it's worth flagging β€” buying 12-cent contracts on a depleted team against a hot one isn't alpha. It's noise. Marcus Webb: We bought noise. Full stop. --- Alex Mercer: One more I want to pull up β€” the Dodgers-Cleveland loss. We bought LA Dodgers shares β€” this was a meaningful position, half a unit risked. Gavin Williams outpitches Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Guardians win 4-1, Williams strikes out ten over seven scoreless innings. Marcus Webb: This one hurts differently. Yamamoto is a World Series MVP. Williams is a young arm who's been solid but not elite. The market priced the Dodgers as heavy favorites, and we agreed. Here's the systemic issue though β€” Yamamoto has been inconsistent this season, and the Dodgers' bullpen has been overworked. Cleveland's lineup, meanwhile, is built around contact and patience. They don't chase. They work counts. When you put a patient lineup against a pitcher who's been leaning on his secondary stuff because his fastball command is inconsistent β€” Williams was able to establish his sinker early, generate weak contact, and the Dodgers' hitters, who are built for power, never adjusted. Alex Mercer: So it wasn't just "Williams was great." It's that Cleveland's approach neutralized what the Dodgers do offensively. Marcus Webb: Exactly. The Dodgers want to elevate. Williams kept the ball down. They never got to their game. Alex Mercer: Bad beat or bad thesis? Marcus Webb: Honest answer? Borderline. The thesis wasn't wrong β€” Dodgers are the better team. But we didn't account for the stylistic matchup. That's a refinement, not an absolution. --- ## πŸ“ STRATEGIC EVOLUTION Alex Mercer: Alright, let's go to the playbook. What did we learn this session, Marcus? Because the number that's sitting in front of me is 12-and-13 for plus 1.2 units, and the structural issue is clear. Marcus Webb: Two things. First β€” when we're buying heavy favorites, the chalk, at 44 to 55 cents, we need to be more selective. This session we went to that price range repeatedly and lost more than we won. At those prices, you're risking more than you're winning. You need a high hit rate to profit. We didn't have it. Alex Mercer: And second? Marcus Webb: Conviction calibration. The Charlotte and Boston-Milwaukee wins prove the model works on long shots when the thesis is sound. But we sized them like specs. If we had sized Charlotte at even half a unit instead of a fraction, this session looks completely different. The lesson is: a 9-cent contract with a strong thesis is not a speculative flier. It's a high-value opportunity. We need to separate "low price" from "low conviction." Alex Mercer: So the new rule for the playbook isβ€” Marcus Webb: Price and conviction are independent variables. Don't let a low share price automatically mean low sizing. If the thesis is strong, the price being low is the point. That's where the edge lives. Alex Mercer: That's the whole game. Marcus Webb: That's the whole game. Alex Mercer: And one more thing worth noting on the market mechanics side β€” the San Antonio-Denver overtime thriller. Jokic drops 40, Wemby answers with 34, Denver wins 136-134 in overtime. We had Denver shares at 44 cents. Marcus Webb: Right. And at multiple points in that game, our Denver shares would've been trading near 95, 98 cents. If you were watching live and wanted to lock in profit before overtime chaos β€” that's the move. Sell at 95 cents, guarantee your gain, let someone else hold the overtime risk. Alex Mercer: And that's the prediction market advantage. In a traditional setup, you're locked in until the final whistle. Here, you're a trader. The game is live, the price is moving, and you can act. Marcus Webb: We held and it settled correctly. But the lesson stands β€” managing live positions is a skill, and we should be using it more actively. --- ## πŸŽ™οΈ OUTRO Alex Mercer: That's the tape for Monday, April 6th. Plus 1.2 units on the session, plus 8.7 on the year. The model is working. The calibration needs tightening. We'll be back with more positions and more film. Before we go, remember β€” all analysis here is grounded in publicly available market data and game results. We grade our positions, we learn from them, and we share the process. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. --- **