# LEDGER RECAP — Friday, April 10, 2026 ### *"Grading the Portfolio. Refining the Algorithm."* --- **HOST (Alex Mercer):** Welcome back to Ledger Recap. I'm Alex Mercer. Across from me, as always, is Marcus Webb. Marcus, we've got a big session to unpack today — 25 positions, a lot of green on the board, but also some spots where I think we left real money on the table. **ANALYST (Marcus Webb):** Big time. And that's the conversation we need to have. The win rate looks great. The unit count? We can do better. Alex Mercer: Before we get into it — quick reminder for the desk on how we track. We work in prediction market units. If we buy a contract at 60 cents, we're risking 0.60 units to win 0.40. It's pure risk-based accounting — the price *is* the implied probability, and our returns reflect that. Keep that in mind as we go through the numbers. --- Alex Mercer: Alright. The Scorecard. This session: **17 wins, 5 losses, 3 pushes across 25 positions. Net: plus 7.4 units.** On the overall ledger, we're now sitting at **325 wins, 270 losses, 21 pushes — plus 16.0 units** for the year. Marcus Webb: Seventeen and five is a strong session. No argument there. But let's be honest — given the implied probabilities we were buying at, 17-5 should have printed more than 7.4 units. Alex Mercer: Say more. Marcus Webb: Look at our win distribution. We had *multiple* positions where we bought at 32, 35, 36, 37 cents. Those are high-conviction calls at steep discounts. When you're right at those prices, the market is paying you generously — *if* you sized correctly. The question is whether we did. Alex Mercer: And the answer is... we were conservative. Marcus Webb: In several spots, yes. That's the thread we're going to pull on today. --- Alex Mercer: Let's get into the Film Room. I want to start with a win that I think tells the whole story of this session — **Dallas Stars over Minnesota Wild.** We actually had *two* positions on this game. Marcus Webb: Right. We bought Dallas to win outright at 47 cents — implied probability of 47% — and we bought Dallas to win by over 1.5 goals at 32 cents. Both settled as wins. Final score: Dallas 5, Minnesota 4. Alex Mercer: So the moneyline returns plus 0.53 units. The spread contract returns plus 0.68 units. Combined, we're up 1.21 units on one game. Marcus Webb: Which sounds great. And it *is* great. But here's the Aggressive Alpha Review — — a 5-4 final. Dallas wins by one goal. The 1.5-goal spread *barely* cashes because of how the math works on run-line equivalents. We got lucky on that one. Alex Mercer: So the spread contract was the right call in terms of return, but the game result could have easily killed it. Marcus Webb: Exactly. And the *lesson* here isn't that we shouldn't have taken the spread — it's about *why* we had conviction. Jason Robertson's tie-breaking goal in the third period. These two teams are locked into a first-round playoff rematch. Dallas had every incentive to close this one out with authority. If our conviction was high enough to buy the 1.5-goal spread at 32 cents, we should have sized that position more aggressively. Alex Mercer: The implied probability was 32%. We were right. And we captured 0.68 units instead of potentially more. Marcus Webb: That's the missed alpha. When you're buying at a 32-cent implied probability and you're *right*, that's where the real edge compounds. We need to be putting more units behind that kind of conviction. --- Alex Mercer: Let's talk about a clean win that I loved — **Washington Capitals over Toronto, wins by over 1.5 goals at 36 cents.** Marcus Webb: Final score: Capitals 4, Maple Leafs 0. Shutout. We return plus 0.64 units. Alex Mercer: Now, the Aggressive Alpha Review here is almost uncomfortable. Marcus Webb: Yeah. A shutout. We bought "wins by over 1.5 goals" at 36 cents — 36% implied probability — and the Capitals *blanked* them. The better play, in hindsight, was a "wins by over 2.5 goals" contract, which would have been priced even lower, meaning even higher return. Alex Mercer: Missed alpha is real here. But I want to give credit to the thesis — 19-year-old Ilya Protas making his NHL debut alongside his brother Aliaksei. That's the kind of emotional energy that elevates a team's performance. The Capitals were *locked in* for this one. Marcus Webb: The chain of causation is clear. A debut game, a family moment on the ice — that locker room was playing for something beyond the standings. Toronto, meanwhile, is managing their roster with one eye on the offseason. The motivational asymmetry was enormous, and we saw it in the final score. We just didn't size the *aggression* of the position to match the conviction of the thesis. --- Alex Mercer: Now let's flip it. The loss that stings most this session — **Atlanta Hawks moneyline at implied 50%.** Hawks lose to the Knicks, 105-108. Marcus Webb: This one was a bad beat wrapped in a bad thesis. Let me be honest about both. Alex Mercer: Go ahead. Marcus Webb: The thesis was Atlanta at home, favorable matchup. What we didn't account for — and this is the systemic failure — is that the Knicks were running a "next man up" scheme with OG Anunoby taking on a larger defensive load. That changes the defensive calculus on Atlanta's perimeter players entirely. When Anunoby is your primary wing defender, you're neutralizing Atlanta's best isolation scorers. The Hawks had no answer for that adjustment in the fourth quarter. Alex Mercer: And the Knicks win by three. Marcus Webb: Three points. Which brings me to the cash-out lesson, because we also had the **Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20-point prop** in this same game, which pushed. But imagine if we'd bought Atlanta shares at, say, 85 cents late in the fourth when they were up. In a traditional setup, you're locked in. In a prediction market, you *sell* those shares at 85 cents and lock in the profit. You don't ride it to zero. Alex Mercer: That's the structural advantage of this format. You're not trapped. Marcus Webb: You're never trapped. The market gives you an exit. We talk about this every week — the ability to trade your position in real time is worth more than any single contract. If you're up big in the fourth quarter, take the profit. Don't let a three-point loss turn a winner into a loser. --- Alex Mercer: One more from the Film Room — **Karl-Anthony Towns, 20-plus points at 49 cents.** Towns finishes with 16. Marcus Webb: Four points short. And the live narrative hook here is important — there are reports of a minor shooting hand tweak for Towns. That's the kind of information that, if we had it *before* the contract settled, changes the entire position. Alex Mercer: So was this a bad thesis or bad information? Marcus Webb: It's a systemic information gap. Towns is averaging well over 20 points this season. At 49 cents, the market was essentially calling this a coin flip. Our thesis was that the implied probability was *too low* for a player of his caliber. But when a player is managing a physical issue, his shot selection changes — he avoids certain movements, pulls back on contested attempts. That's the chain of causation. Hand tweak leads to conservative shot selection leads to 16 points instead of 20-plus. We didn't have that variable in our model. Alex Mercer: Lesson for the player prop playbook. Marcus Webb: Always check the injury wire within two hours of settlement. Always. --- Alex Mercer: Let's get to Strategic Evolution. Marcus, what's the rule update coming out of this session? Marcus Webb: Two things. First — **conviction-to-aggression calibration.** We went 17-5 this session. Our sub-35-cent contracts — the high-discount, high-return positions — went 5-for-5. Five wins at implied probabilities of 32 to 37 percent. That's exceptional. And yet because we sized those conservatively, we're capping our upside at roughly 0.5 to 0.68 units per position. Alex Mercer: So the new rule is— Marcus Webb: When we have a *structural* thesis — not just a gut read, but a genuine systemic edge — and the market is pricing the contract below 40 cents, we need to size up. Not recklessly. But the math demands it. Five correct calls at 32 to 37 cents should be printing over a unit each, not half a unit. Alex Mercer: And the second evolution? Marcus Webb: **Multi-leg same-game positioning.** The Dallas game showed us this works. We had both the moneyline and the spread on Dallas. Combined return of 1.21 units from one game. But we need a *framework* for when to run both legs versus just one. The rule going forward: if we have a spread position at under 40 cents, we also take the moneyline as a hedge — because if the spread misses by a whisker, the moneyline still cashes. Alex Mercer: It's portfolio construction within a single game. Marcus Webb: Exactly. You're not doubling your risk — you're *diversifying* your return profile on the same thesis. --- Alex Mercer: Before we go — — 17-5 this session. Plus 7.4 units. The overall ledger sits at plus 16 units on the year. The algorithm is working. But as Marcus said, working *well* and working at *full capacity* are two different things. That's what we're building toward. Marcus Webb: Iron sharpens iron. See you next session. Alex Mercer: Before we close out, remember — everything we discuss here is analysis of prediction market contracts, not financial or legal advice. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. --- **