**PREDICTION MARKET HQ: DAILY SPORTS — EVENING EDITION** *Tuesday, April 14, 2026* --- **HOST (Alex Mercer):** It is Tuesday evening, April 14th — welcome to the Daily Sports Evening Edition. I'm Alex Mercer alongside Marcus Webb, and we have a loaded card tonight. Six games, sharp money moving, and at least one position we are walking away from before the first pitch. We encourage you to jump into Kalshi or your prediction market app of choice with us — as always, we will be using Kalshi's data to track where the sharp money is moving. Let's get into it. --- **** Alex Mercer: Alright Marcus, let's run the morning book. First stop — Washington versus Pittsburgh. Six-forty Eastern tonight. Where do we stand? Marcus Webb: We are holding, and I feel good about it. Pittsburgh sends out a starter with a 1.00 ERA. Washington counters with Miles Mikolas sitting at a 12.41 ERA — that is not a typo. The Pirates just dropped 16 runs yesterday, Oneil Cruz is on a 12-game hitting streak, slashing .345 with a .645 slugging percentage during that run. And here's the detail that keeps me up at night in the best way — Washington's staff has been so depleted they've had position player Joey Wiemer eating innings. This one sets up cleanly. Alex Mercer: Rookie Konnor Griffin is also back in the lineup after an RBI in that 16-run explosion. The narrative writes itself. We are holding Washington-Pittsburgh. Next — Miami versus Atlanta. This one's a different story, Marcus. Marcus Webb: Yeah. We're out. Alex Mercer: Walk me through it. Marcus Webb: So this morning, we liked the Braves minus-two-and-a-half alt-spread at 32 cents. Reynaldo Lopez on the mound, 1.15 ERA, coming back from a five-game suspension — motivated pitcher, we called it a revenge spot. The thesis was sound. But the market has moved hard against us. That price has climbed to 61 cents. Our fair value is 44%. We were sitting on a 4% edge at open — now we're looking at negative 17%. The edge is gone. We're not chasing it. Alex Mercer: Negative 17 is not a number you negotiate with. Marcus Webb: You don't. We exit, we move on. Lopez might still dominate tonight — but that's not our money to make at this price. Alex Mercer: Clean cut. Miami-Atlanta — we are out. Final morning position: New Jersey at Boston. Hockey. This one's been a live wire all day, Marcus. Marcus Webb: It has. And look — I want to be transparent here. This morning we had half a unit on the Devils at 59 cents, and the report flagged a Double Down signal. But when we re-ran the numbers tonight, the edge doesn't fully support adding. Jack Hughes is on IR. Jacob Markstrom is on IR. Luke Hughes and Arseny Gritsyuk ruled out for the season. The Devils are carrying a league-high nine players on the shelf walking into TD Garden. Alex Mercer: That sounds like a case to *add*, not hold. Marcus Webb: Here's the thing — the market has already priced most of that in. We're at 59 cents, our fair value comes in around 55%. We're actually sitting at a slight negative edge right now. So we are not adding. We hold the morning half unit, we protect the position, and we watch Pastrnak chase his hundredth point tonight against a Devils defense that has been giving up soft goals all month. Alex Mercer: Holding at half a unit. Conservative, but correct. --- **** Alex Mercer: Alright — late adds. Three of them tonight. Marcus, lead us off. Marcus Webb: Lead play of the evening — Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics. We are going one-and-a-half units on the A's winning by more than one-and-a-half runs. This is the sharpest number on the board tonight. Alex Mercer: Make the case. Marcus Webb: Jeffrey Springs on the mound for Oakland — 1.47 ERA. Texas ranks 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. And the Rangers carry an MLB-high 34.5% strikeout rate against southpaws this season. Yesterday Oakland lost 8-1 — the market overcorrected, and we are buying the dip. Now, there was a Wyatt Langford injury concern this morning — quad issue — but he has been cleared to return tonight, so that's a non-factor. The setup is clean, the price reflects yesterday's blowout more than tonight's pitching matchup. Alex Mercer: One-and-a-half units. That's our biggest single bet of the night. Marcus Webb: It is. Conviction is there. Alex Mercer: Second late add — Toronto at Milwaukee. Marcus Webb: One unit on the Brewers winning by over one-and-a-half runs. Value play. Milwaukee has a 41-point net rating advantage going into this one, and they are trying to snap a five-game home skid — that's a mean-reversion spot we like. Meanwhile, Toronto is in crisis. George Springer — fractured toe, IL. Alejandro Kirk — broken thumb, IL. Anthony Santander already out. Eloy Jiménez recalled from Triple-A Buffalo, batting in the middle of the order. The Blue Jays are 0-and-3 on the road this season, carrying a minus-25 run differential over their last ten games. And their rotation is shredded — Berríos and Bieber both sidelined, they are leaning heavily on a taxed bullpen tonight. Alex Mercer: Replacement-level lineup, depleted rotation, on the road. One unit on Milwaukee. Marcus Webb: Exactly. Alex Mercer: Third late add — Montreal at Philadelphia. This one's speculative. Marcus Webb: Half a unit. Speculative label, and I mean it. But the motivation mismatch here is real. Philadelphia clinched a playoff berth last night and they are resting nine key starters — entire top-four defense, star goalie Dan Vladar, all sitting. They're sending out backup Samuel Ersson, who is carrying an .867 save percentage on the season. Montreal needs this game. Home-ice advantage over Tampa Bay is on the line — they are not coasting. Alex Mercer: Ersson has been better since the Olympic break — .908 since then — so it's not a complete layup. Marcus Webb: Right, which is why it's half a unit and not more. But a motivated Montreal team against a Philly squad that is essentially running a glorified practice lineup? The edge is there. Alex Mercer: Half a unit. Speculative, but we're in. --- **** Alex Mercer: Alright — Full Card. Here is the live portfolio as we sit right now on Tuesday evening. Morning holds still active: Washington versus Pittsburgh — holding, 6:40 PM Eastern, *tonight*. New Jersey at Boston — half a unit, holding. Evening adds: Oakland over Texas by one-and-a-half — one-and-a-half units, lead play. Milwaukee over Toronto by one-and-a-half — one unit. Montreal at Philadelphia — half a unit, speculative. Marcus Webb: Total units on the board: four units active. Washington-Pittsburgh is your last game to enter tonight — 6:40 Eastern is your deadline. Don't sleep on it. Alex Mercer: If you're coming in late on any of these — and remember, you may be ten to fifteen minutes behind us — check your prices before you enter. If the A's run line has moved past where we got it, wait for a dip or pass. Don't chase. Marcus Webb: Especially on the live markets. Conditional entries only. --- **** Alex Mercer: That is the full evening edition for Tuesday, April 14th. Tomorrow we will be tracking how these positions close and adjusting accordingly. And as always — "Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."