# PREDICTION MARKET HQ: DAILY SPORTS ## Morning Edition — Friday, April 24, 2026 --- Alex Mercer: You're locked into Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports — the Morning Edition. Friday, April 24th. I'm Alex Mercer. Marcus Webb: Marcus Webb. And Alex, before you even get into the card — I need to talk about Houston tonight. Alex Mercer: Of course you do. We've got five positions across baseball and the NBA playoffs, folks, and Marcus is already fired up. If you want to bet alongside us, jump into Kalshi or your prediction market app of choice — we'll be using Kalshi's data all day to track where the sharp money is actually moving. Now — lead play first. Atlanta Braves moneyline tonight against Philadelphia. A unit and a half. That's our biggest conviction play of the day. Marcus Webb: And it's not even close. --- ## TODAY'S CARD Alex Mercer: Let's build the case. Atlanta Braves moneyline, trading at 58 cents on Kalshi — implies a 58% probability. Our fair price is 65%. That's a seven-cent edge, and on a unit and a half, that matters. Here's the core of it: the Phillies are starting Andrew Painter tonight. He's 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA, and Philadelphia has lost nine of their last ten games. Nine of ten. Meanwhile, Atlanta counters with Grant Holmes, who carries a 2.19 career ERA specifically against this Philadelphia lineup. Marcus Webb: Right. And the pitching mismatch is only half the story. Atlanta's home record this season is 18-8. Eighteen and eight. That's not noise — that's a structural advantage. Truist Park, 84 degrees tonight, and the Braves have the superior barrel rates to exploit it. Alex Mercer: See, that's the thing — the weather context here is real. Heat and humidity at elevation-adjacent parks genuinely plays into exit velocity. Atlanta hitters are already posting elite barrel rates, and you're taking away Zack Wheeler — the one arm that could neutralize this lineup — and replacing him with a rookie on a team in freefall. The market is pricing this at 58 cents and I think it should be closer to 65. That's where we anchored our fair value. Marcus Webb: One flag worth mentioning — Michael Harris II is day-to-day with a quad strain. Thins the outfield a little. But Atlanta is still a -141 favorite on the moneyline, and the efficiency gap here doesn't close just because Harris is questionable. Alex Mercer: Agreed. We're not chasing a perfect lineup card. We're chasing mispriced probability on a team with a structural home advantage, a favorable pitching matchup, and a demoralized opponent. Unit and a half. That's our lead play. Game starts at 7:15 PM ET — we'll have any last-minute lineup updates in the 6:30 PM Evening Edition, so watch for that. --- Alex Mercer: Alright, moving down the card — one unit on Edmonton Oilers -1.5 spread, Game 3 against Anaheim. This one tips off at 10 PM ET, so again, full updated market data in the Evening Edition. But let's talk about why we're here. This is trading at 35 cents on Kalshi — implies a 35% probability. Our fair price is 45%. Ten-cent edge. Marcus Webb: Ten cents. That's the biggest edge on the board by percentage, Alex. The market is genuinely sleeping on what's happening in Anaheim's crease. Alex Mercer: Walk us through it. Marcus Webb: Petr Mrazek is officially done for the season — hip surgery. The Ducks are running backup goaltending in a playoff series, and in their last meeting with Edmonton, that backup rotation allowed six goals. Six. Edmonton's NetRtg is plus-0.34. Anaheim's is minus-0.05. That differential in a seven-game series with a backup goalie is enormous. Alex Mercer: Now, the one thing I want to address — Cutter Gauthier had a two-goal game in Game 2. The series is tied 1-1. So the public is looking at this and saying "Anaheim can compete." And they can. But competing and covering a 1.5-goal spread against a team with Edmonton's firepower when you're starting a backup? Those are very different things. Marcus Webb: The series being tied actually helps us here. If Edmonton had gone up 2-0, this price would have moved. It hasn't, because the public is anchoring on the series result, not the underlying metrics. Alex Mercer: Exactly. And because this price is sitting at 35 cents — below 40 — I want to be clear with our listeners: this is an active bet on a game outcome. We are buying mispriced probability, not guaranteeing a win. If this price runs up before puck drop, consider taking profit on a portion. One unit here. Keep your sizing disciplined. --- Alex Mercer: Now we get into the speculative plays. Half-unit territory. Three of them today. Let's do Elly De La Cruz first — one-plus home runs, Detroit at Cincinnati, 6:40 PM ET. This one starts before our Evening Edition, so we want to get this in front of you now. It's trading at 17 cents on Kalshi. Seventeen cents. Our fair price is 28%. Eleven-cent edge — the sharpest edge on the board. Marcus Webb: And look, 17 cents is low. That's the point. But the math supports it. Alex Mercer: Here's the alpha: De La Cruz is slugging at an elite rate against left-handed pitching — 0.143 home runs per plate appearance against lefties. Tonight he faces Framber Valdez, who is a lefty. At Great American Ball Park, which is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. And it's 82 degrees with humidity. The conditions are as favorable as they get. Marcus Webb: Valdez has been solid — 4-1 against the spread in his starts this year — but he's on the road, and that Reds lineup has been dangerous at home all season. De La Cruz also has four home runs in his last ten games. He's in a power surge right now. Alex Mercer: This is a low-probability, high-payout play. He either hits a home run or he doesn't. There is no "partial credit." This is exactly why we're at half a unit, not one, not two. But at 17 cents for a guy we calculate at 28%? You're getting paid nearly two-to-one on what we think is a coin-flip-adjacent outcome. Half-unit flier. Size accordingly. --- Alex Mercer: Next speculative play — Aaron Judge, one-plus home runs, Yankees at Houston, 8:10 PM ET. Trading at 26 cents, fair price 32%, six-cent edge. Half unit. Marcus Webb: Judge leads the majors with nine home runs. He's on a four-game hitting streak. And Houston is starting Lance McCullers with a 6.20 ERA. Alex Mercer: Six-point-two-zero. And the Astros bullpen is missing both their primary starter — Brown — and their closer, Hader. So you're getting Judge, who is the hottest power hitter in baseball right now, against a thinned-out pitching staff, in a park with a 114 home run park factor. Yankee Stadium plays big. Marcus Webb: The binomial projection based on his season rates puts him at 32.4% for a home run tonight. Market says 26%. That gap is real. Alex Mercer: Same disclaimer applies — 26 cents, below 40. This is a low-probability prop. He either goes deep or he doesn't. Half unit. Don't oversize it because you love Judge. We love Judge too. Half unit. Game starts at 8:10 PM ET — Evening Edition will have any late lineup news. --- Alex Mercer: Last position on the card — and Marcus, this is your one. Houston Rockets moneyline, Game 3 against the Lakers, 8 PM ET. Half unit. Trading at 74 cents. Marcus Webb: I know what you're thinking. Seventy-four cents, half a unit, one-cent edge — why are we even here? Alex Mercer: That's exactly what I'm thinking. Marcus Webb: Because the volume on this market is almost four million dollars. Nearly four million dollars of public money has moved through this contract, and the market has compressed to 74 cents. Our fair price is 75. The edge is thin, but in a high-volume, high-liquidity market, thin edges on the right side of a massive mispricing are still edges. And here's the mispricing: the public is pricing the Lakers close to even because of Kevin Durant's ankle. The Rockets are at 74 cents despite the fact that Luka Doncic — 33.5 points per game — is confirmed out for the Lakers. Alex Mercer: Hold on — let me steelman the other side. Durant is a game-time decision with a left ankle sprain. If he doesn't play, this number moves. And Austin Reaves is now questionable, which gives LeBron a secondary option. The Lakers are not helpless. Marcus Webb: They're not helpless. They're just significantly worse without Doncic. LeBron plus Reaves is a good duo. LeBron plus Doncic is a championship-caliber offensive system. The Rockets at home, needing to avoid a 3-0 hole, with NetRtg metrics that support a 75% win probability — I'll take 74 cents all day. Alex Mercer: We'll get Durant's final status in the Evening Edition at 6:30. If the price moves significantly on a Durant scratch, that changes the calculus. For now — half unit, Houston Rockets moneyline. --- Alex Mercer: Let's put the card together. We've got three and a half units across five positions today. Lead play — Atlanta Braves moneyline, unit and a half. One unit on Edmonton -1.5. Three half-unit speculative plays: Elly De La Cruz home run, Aaron Judge home run, and Houston Rockets moneyline. Marcus Webb: Three and a half units. Two of those positions are below 40 cents, so size with discipline. These are mispriced probabilities, not locks. --- ## ON OUR RADAR Alex Mercer: Nothing on the radar board today — we went straight to positions on everything we liked. Clean card. Five plays, three and a half units. --- ## OUTRO Alex Mercer: Alright, that's the Morning Edition for Friday, April 24th. Quick recap — Atlanta Braves moneyline, unit and a half, lead play. Edmonton Oilers -1.5, one unit. Elly De La Cruz home run, half unit. Aaron Judge home run, half unit. Houston Rockets moneyline, half unit. Three and a half total units on the board. Marcus Webb: Two baseball games starting before 7 PM — De La Cruz at 6:40, that's your most time-sensitive play. Get your position in early. Alex Mercer: Join us at 6:30 PM ET for the Daily Sports Evening Edition — we'll have Durant's injury status, any late lineup scratches, and updated market prices on everything starting after 7. Before we go, remember — prediction markets carry real financial risk. Do your own research, manage your bankroll, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.