# 🎙️ PREDICTION MARKET HQ: DAILY SPORTS ## Saturday Morning Edition — April 25, 2026 --- Alex Mercer: What is up, everybody — welcome to Prediction Market HQ: Daily Sports, your Saturday morning edge. I'm Alex Mercer. Marcus Webb: And I'm Marcus Webb. And Alex — I'm going to say it right now — we've got one of the cleaner cards I've seen in a while. The odds are *misaligned* in at least two spots today, and I want to get into it. Alex Mercer: We do. Four positions on the board today, playoff basketball and playoff hockey, and we are *loaded* with value. Before we get into it — we encourage you to jump into Kalshi or your prediction market app of choice with us; as always, we will be using Kalshi's data to track where the sharp money is moving. And Marcus, tease it — what's jumping out at you? Marcus Webb: SGA. One three-pointer. Trading at 79 cents. The market is underpricing this by ten full points. That's where I'm starting. Alex Mercer: That's our lead play. Let's get into the card. --- ## 🏀 TODAY'S CARD --- Alex Mercer: Alright — Game 3, Oklahoma City versus Phoenix, tipping off this afternoon at 3:30 PM ET. So we are *on the clock* here, folks. We've got two positions in this game, and we're starting with the lead play. Two units — max conviction — on **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to hit one or more three-pointers.** Currently trading at 79 cents on Kalshi. Our fair price model has this at 89%. That is a ten-point edge on a two-unit play. Marcus, walk us through it. Marcus Webb: Okay, so here's the math first. SGA averages 4.4 three-point attempts per game. Four-point-four. When you run a binomial probability model — accounting for his career three-point percentage and that attempt volume — you get an 89% implied probability of at least one make. The market is sitting at 79%. That gap doesn't close on its own. That's alpha. Alex Mercer: And then you layer in the Jalen Williams news, which just makes this even cleaner. JWill is out — hamstring — and SGA himself told reporters the transition feels "seamless." That's a player who is *comfortable* absorbing more offensive responsibility. Marcus Webb: Right. Williams was running 24% usage. That doesn't disappear — it redistributes. And the primary beneficiary is SGA. More touches, more pull-up opportunities, more catch-and-shoot looks as defenses collapse on him. Alex Mercer: I like this because it's not a *hope* play. It's not "maybe he gets hot." It's math. He takes four-plus threes a game. He's the number one option with no JWill. The Phoenix defense is compromised. You need *one* to go in. At 79 cents, you are getting paid to hold a ticket that should be priced at 89. That's the whole thesis. Marcus Webb: And look — at 79 cents, this is an active bet. We are buying mispriced probability, not guaranteeing a win. If this thing runs up to 85, 86 before tip, consider locking in profit. But right now? Two units. No hesitation. Alex Mercer: Two units. Lead play. 3:30 ET tip — you've got a few hours, get in early before the market catches up. --- Alex Mercer: Staying in OKC-Phoenix, same 3:30 tip, and this is our second position — one and a half units, high conviction — **Devin Booker to score 25 or more points.** Trading at 45 cents. Our fair price: 57%. Twelve-point edge. Marcus Webb: Okay, so — 45 cents. The market is essentially saying Booker has a coin-flip chance of hitting 25. That is *wrong.* Alex Mercer: It's wrong. Booker is averaging 26.1 points per game. His baseline already clears this number. And now you factor in the context: Phoenix is down 0-2, staring at an 0-3 hole, and Grayson Allen — who provides secondary shot creation — is hobbled. Marcus Webb: His usage spikes. Has to. There's nobody else. Alex Mercer: And here's the narrative hook I love on this one — Booker came out of Game 2 *furious*. Compared the officiating to the WWE. Now, I don't care about the complaint itself — what I care about is what that tells you about his mentality walking into Game 3. That is a player who is going to *attack* this game. High aggression, high volume, ref-proof scoring — meaning he's going to the rim, drawing contact, putting up shot attempts regardless of how the game is called. Marcus Webb: And elimination-style atmosphere — even if it's not technically elimination — amplifies usage for your best player. Every coach in the league goes to their star in must-win moments. Alex Mercer: Exactly. 45 cents implies 45% probability. We've got it at 57%. One and a half units. And again — 3:30 ET tip, so move on this one *this morning.* We'll be watching this one closely. Marcus Webb: One note — since this is sub-50 cents, I'll say it: he either scores 25 or he doesn't. It's a player prop. Size accordingly. One and a half units is the right number here — not two. --- Alex Mercer: Alright, let's pivot to playoff hockey. We've got two speculative half-unit plays — and I want to be clear about what "speculative" means here. These are not our highest-confidence positions. They are high-upside, mispriced probability plays where the math justifies a small allocation. Half a unit each. Marcus Webb: Half-unit fliers. Low probability, high payout, real edge. Alex Mercer: First one — **Carolina Hurricanes to win by more than 2.5 goals over Ottawa in Game 4.** Puck drops at 3:00 PM ET this afternoon. Trading at 21 cents. Fair price: 29%. Eight-point edge. Marcus Webb: The Ottawa situation is a *disaster.* Jake Sanderson — out. Confirmed this morning, concussion. Artem Zub — out. Nick Jensen — out for the season. That is three of your top defensemen. Gone. You are rolling AHL-level depth in a playoff elimination game against Carolina's top-five offense. Alex Mercer: Rod Brind'Amour came out and said "finish the job." That's a team that is *locked in.* They are not letting Ottawa breathe. And when Carolina gets rolling against a depleted blue line — we've seen this before — they can pile on. The blowout potential is real. Marcus Webb: The mechanism for the 2.5-goal spread is the empty net. Ottawa is desperate. If they're down by two in the third, they pull the goalie early. Carolina buries it. That's how you get to three-plus. Alex Mercer: Half unit. 21 cents. 3:00 PM ET — that one's actually the *first* game of the day, so if you're listening to this in the morning, get in before puck drop. We'll have any last-minute updates in our 6:30 PM ET evening edition, but this one won't wait. --- Alex Mercer: And the final position — **Pittsburgh Penguins to win by more than 2.5 goals over Philadelphia in Game 4.** This one drops at 8:00 PM ET tonight, so we'll have updated market data in the evening show. Trading at 18 cents. Fair price: 29%. Eleven-point edge. Half unit, speculative. Marcus Webb: Eighteen cents. That is a *steep* discount on a team with a real path to a blowout. Alex Mercer: Here's the thesis: Dan Vladar — who has been the Flyers' backbone, posting a 94.7% save percentage — is a game-time decision. Right arm injury. If he can't go, Sam Ersson makes his postseason debut. Under immense pressure. In an elimination game. Marcus Webb: Postseason debut. Elimination game. That is not a situation you want to be in. Alex Mercer: And the same empty-net math applies here. Philadelphia is fighting for their season. If Pittsburgh goes up two in the third, the Flyers pull Ersson — or whoever's in net — and the Penguins' veteran core capitalizes. Pittsburgh has the experience to close out games efficiently. Marcus Webb: Now — I want to be honest. This is the lowest-volume play on the card. 536 dollars in market volume. Thin market. Which means the price can move fast, and it can also be noisy. Half unit is exactly right here. Alex Mercer: Exactly. This is a conditional play. If Vladar is confirmed out before puck drop, this becomes even more interesting. We'll have that update in the evening show. For now — half unit at 18 cents, and remember: we are buying mispriced probability on a low-probability outcome. He either wins by three or he doesn't. Size accordingly. Marcus Webb: And for the listeners catching this later tonight — if the price has run up past 25, 26 cents, the edge has compressed. Be disciplined. --- ## 📡 ON OUR RADAR --- Alex Mercer: Quick radar check before we wrap — one game we looked at but did not take a position on. Marcus Webb: Philadelphia versus Atlanta — Braves moneyline. We saw a ten-point edge, conditions at Truist Park are beautiful today, sunny, low 80s, hitter's paradise for Atlanta's power lineup. Alex Mercer: We looked at it. The price isn't where we need it to be to pull the trigger this morning, and baseball moneylines carry enough variance that we want more cushion. But we're watching it for tonight — any line movement, any pitching news, that could change the calculus. We'll revisit in the evening show. --- ## 🎯 OUTRO --- Alex Mercer: Alright — let's recap the card. Four positions. Total of four and a half units on the board today. Marcus Webb: Lead play — SGA one-plus threes, two units, 79 cents, 3:30 ET. High conviction — Booker 25-plus points, one and a half units, 45 cents, same tip. Two speculative half-unit fliers in hockey — Carolina by 2.5 over Ottawa at 21 cents, 3:00 PM puck drop; and Pittsburgh by 2.5 over Philly at 18 cents, 8:00 PM tonight. Alex Mercer: The basketball plays are your priority this morning — 3:30 tip means the window is closing. The Carolina play is *right now.* Pittsburgh we'll track through the day and update in the evening show. Make sure you're subscribed so you don't miss the 6:30 PM ET Daily Sports Evening Edition — we'll have Vladar's status, line movement on all the night games, and any sharp money shifts on Kalshi. Alex Mercer: Before we go — remember, everything we discuss today is our analytical framework built on publicly available data and market pricing. We are not financial advisors, we are not guaranteeing outcomes. Prediction markets involve real risk. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. --- **